Andy Dalton has never lost as a home favorite against the AFC North in his career (6-0), and the Cincinnati Bengals have a huge opportunity to remain in the thick of the division title hunt with a win here. How big of an upset would it be if the Cleveland Browns were able to beat the Bengals in Cincinnati? Cleveland is 1-9 straight up in Cincinnati since 2004, losing by slightly less than a touchdown per contest.
Thursday's matchup will be particularly difficult for the Browns' defense on the ground. The Browns are tied for 30th in rushing yards per game (139.6) and are 29th in yards per rush (4.8). Meanwhile, the Bengals are ninth in rushing yards per game (121.6) and fourth in yards after contact per rush (1.95).
Of the Browns' eight games this season, they have allowed seven rushing touchdowns and 100 rushing yards in seven of them. Whether it is Giovani Bernard or Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati should give Cleveland fits in the running game.
In the past three seasons, Cincinnati has the sixth-best win percentage at home, with a record of 16-4-1. During the same span, Cleveland is 3-16 on the road, which is the second-worst road winning percentage in the NFL.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Bengals at a clip of 78 percent at the line of Cincinnati minus-6.
Let's look at analysis and an ATS pick on the game from our panel of wiseguys and some prop bet picks from John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information:
Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Opened Cincinnati minus-6; now Cincinnati minus-6
Total: Opened 44.5; now 44.5
Picks
Dave Tuley says: "At the start of the season, not many people thought this Thursday night matchup could have playoff implications, but it sure does. However, I think