Martynov: elections in the Donbass - the path of negotiation

Elections in the breakaway Donetsk and Lugansk national republics open the way to peace, giving more weight to the negotiations in the Contact group, But the Kiev authorities currently rather expressed interest in continuing hostilities polled Last news professionals.

Despite the signing in September of this ceasefire agreement, real ceasefire in the East of Ukraine as long as no conflict parties periodically blame one another in the violation mode. In early October, the intensity of the clashes greatly decreased and the parties to the conflict even signed an agreement on the separation line Along which, according to the Minsk agreements should be established 30-kilometer buffer zone. Under the document, the Military were obliged to leave several cities, And among them Sands - the outskirts of Donetsk, which the Ukrainian army is shelling the city. Under the control of the Ukrainian security forces remained Mariupol, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

However, after a few weeks it became clear that a contract not fully performed: removal of heavy weapons So never happened. There were messages that Kyiv generally withdraws his signature to the document, And DND and LNR began to threaten the transition to the offensive.


Director of the Institute for advanced countries Alexey Martynov indicates that the Elections in the unrecognized republics could give more weight to the negotiations, which are conducted periodically in Minsk in the framework of the Contact group on the settlement of the situation in Ukraine (Russia - Ukraine - OSCE). If previously the head of DND and LNR formally participated in them as individuals and signed documents in the same quality, which have contributed to the decisions of legitimacy, now the situation may change.

" Once the World is not coming. Between war and peace is the negotiation process that someone has to Lead. Dialogue in the format of the Minsk process, when the most important Protocol are just two names without regalia and, that is, the legitimate authority is one case and it is clearly not literally legitimate. Another case - If such dialogues will Maintain a publicly elected Commissioners, is the return of the provisions in the scope of international law. To deny this is at least silly, And generally is the reluctance of the world, doing things to continue the war, " - said the expert.

" Someone must Keep the negotiation process, as well As among them - and With Kiev, about how to live. In this sense, definitely Elections in Donetsk and Lugansk very necessary, " he added.

at the same time Martynov recognized that, unfortunately, the logic of international law are no longer thinking." I am convinced that the Elections of local authorities in these regions is good, this is the path to peace. Another question that today in Kyiv in power, unfortunately, are citizens who are prone to escalation of tension in the South-East of Ukraine and on the continuation of the civil war, " he said.


on his part, head of the Center of system analysis and forecasting Rostislav Ishchenko believes that Kyiv has driven itself into a situation where not to continue the war impossible.

" today, the army cannot be removed From the front in big cities, so that she would be able to survive the winter, as in this case, the host will simply occupy the territory, left the military. On the reverse side, the army cannot just leave the front as it will revolt, If not will Keep the real fighting, not going to go on the offensive - no one wants to spend the winter in the trenches ", he said Last news .

So, for the Kiev authorities even initially losing the conduct of hostilities is currently the only viable option." The problem of Kiev that he is in zugzwang: don't start fighting - probable failure mode, starts the same way. But fighting is the active position, And rejection of them is passive. Often in such cases, choose the active position, because it gives the opportunity to somehow manage the process, " said Ishchenko.

On the reverse side, to begin the first too, no one wants." From a tactical point of view militia unprofitable themselves to go on the offensive, they are entertaining, so went on the offensive Kiev and wine for violation of the Minsk agreements would lay on it ", - says the expert.

As for the Ukrainian security forces offensive may result in another defeat." The intensification of the fighting can Lead to a fairly rapid onset of militia at a sufficiently great depth, " explained Ishchenko.

But calm, his vision will not be installed because the line of demarcation is not good for anyone." Along the separation line lull to come in a can. Either Kiev Or Donetsk, Nor Lugansk With this line not agree have the opportunity: the border, the front line, really, is in the city of Donetsk and Lugansk ", - noted the expert.

on Sunday, November 2, unrecognized Donetsk and Lugansk national republics Election of heads of regions and the deputies of the people's councils. According to the results of processing 100% of protocols in both regions, defeated the incumbent authorities. Thus, the current Prime Minister of the unrecognized Republic Alexander Zakharchenko received 765 340 votes in the elections to the national Council of the party leader " Donetsk Republic ", a list which is headed by the Prime Minister, gaining 662 thousand voices. For its part, the acting head LNR Igor Carpenter scored 63, 46% of the vote went to the polls on elections And governmental organization " World region ", a list which is headed by Carpenter, gets nearly 70% of the vote.


sections: Politics