Assurant Inc. (AIZ) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2014 results after the market closes on Oct 29.

In the last quarter, this multi-line insurer delivered a 5.9% positive earnings surprise. The average beat for the trailing four quarters is 8.01%.

Will Assurant deliver a positive earnings surprise this quarter as well? Let's see what factors might have influenced the earnings report this time around.

Factors Likely to Influence Q3 Results

The company’s Solutions segment is expected to generate higher net operating income led by increased contribution from mobile, improved international results and savings from previous expense management actions.

We also expect Assurant’s Employee Benefit segment to see higher earnings from growth in sales of voluntary products.

However, earnings at the company’s Specialty Property segment may be hurt by lower lender-placed business, as the real estate market gains strength. However, the segment is expected to benefit from recent acquisitions by the mortgage value chain.

Assurant’s Health segment will continue to weigh upon the company’s overall earnings. Higher commission on new sales and higher tax liabilities related to the health care reform are also expected to drain earnings in the third quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Assurant is likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the third quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or at least 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. But this is not the case here as elaborated below.

Zacks ESP: Assurant’s Most Accurate estimate is pegged at $1.57 per share, which is in a penny below the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The Earnings ESP is thus -0.63%.

Zacks Rank: Assurant has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Though Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 increases the predictive power of ESP, the company’s ESP of -0.63% makes surprise prediction difficult.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

AmSurg Corp. (AMSG), Earnings ESP of +18.52% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Kemper Corporation (KMPR) Earnings ESP of +13.33% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd. (ENH) Earnings ESP of +3.95% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Read the Full Research Report on AIZ
Read the Full Research Report on AMSG
Read the Full Research Report on ENH
Read the Full Research Report on KMPR


Zacks Investment Research