Punters pick Denis Napthine to stay on track for re-election as Victorian premier

"I absolutely love Victoria, but I love rural and regional Victoria," he tells The Sunday Age on the campaign trail last week. "It's where I come from, it's where I live, and I can see great opportunities here."

Those who know Napthine will say he's always been this way: a knockabout bloke who is just as comfortable mixing with folks on country paddocks as he is trading blows across the chamber at Spring Street.

But while supporters say he's one of the government's best assets in the regions (advisers admit they like it when he visits because it tends to "relax" him), critics claim he hasn't done enough for the bush, despite the natural advantage. Come November 29, we'll know who is right.

The battle will be bruising. To win a second term, the Coalition not only needs to retain most of the sandbelt metropolitan seats that led it to victory in 2010 – Bentleigh, Carrum, Mordialloc and Frankston – it also needs to pick up electorates in regional areas such as Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, where there are myriad issues.

In Geelong, for instance (made up of three marginal seats, two Labor and one Liberal), countless families are still reeling in the wake of large-scale redundancies at Ford, Alcoa and Avalon.

In Bendigo (two marginal seats, both Labor), youth unemployment has hit 13 per cent, while TAFE cuts have squeezed courses, staff numbers and budgets.

And in the Nationals' seat of Morwell, the Hazelwood mine fire has sparked a grassroots independents' campaign modelled on Cathy McGowan's successful bid to unseat the Liberals in the federal electorate of Indi.

Coupled with a redistribution of electoral boundaries, which has reduced the swing Labor requires to win office, the government faces an uphill fight.

Napthine is aware there are challenges, but insists his strategy - investing more in the regions to accommodate the state's population boom – is resonating.

He cites a number of examples to prove his point: a partnership between the Bendigo Hospital and Kangan Institute for a "centre of excellence" to encourage more people to study and work in the area; the Ballarat West Employment Zone, which is driving economic growth over the next 20 years by developing 438 hectares of state land adjacent to Ballarat Airport; and the realignment of the railway line in Wodonga to make way for an urban renewal project in the heart of the town.

"It isn't just haphazard, or hoping things will happen - it's actually making sure things will happen," he says.

Nonetheless, there's a cautionary tale Napthine and deputy premier Peter Ryan learnt from the Kennett government's 1999 election defeat: never turn your back on the regions.

Both were part of the Kennett government when country voters had enough of being treated as the state's "toenails" and unexpectedly turfed the Coalition from office. Both took on the task of leading their demoralised parties in the aftermath of that defeat. And both were front and centre again, years later, as the Coalition sought to boost its credentials outside Melbourne: Napthine as a minister for regional cities; Ryan as minister for rural and regional development.

Does the ghost of Kennett still haunt the Coalition? "I don't think it haunts us," he replies, "but the fact that both Peter Ryan and myself both live and come from country Victoria means we understand better than most the great quality of life and opportunities."

Opportunities in Napthine's life were often embraced, even as a boy growing on a farm in Winchelsea with nine other siblings. As the third-eldest child, the young Denis Napthine would run Cup sweeps for the shearers, and spend his holidays rearing piglets he'd bought at the Geelong Market to resell for pocket money. It was slow and unglamorous work, but eventually he made enough money to buy his first car – a 1961 FB Holden.

Politics was also a slow burn. After graduating from veterinary science at Melbourne University, Napthine accepted a cadetship from the department of agriculture, which sent him to work in Hamilton, eliminating brucellosis and tuberculosis in animals. With his wife Peggy, he also worked as a house parent for intellectually disabled children, where they met their foster son, Jack. Being a vet was appealing, Napthine says, because he's always been driven by "the bigger picture" - and "the biggest picture for me is working at a political level, to help your community.

"I've often said there is no greater thrill for a young vet to do a caesarean on a cow, or to help a cow deliver a calf that is having a difficult birth. But you do that a few times, and then you sort of think: how can I help the farmer have easier calvings so that he doesn't need this intervention?" he says.

"If you work on the big picture, then you can deal with the little hiccups and speed bumps along the way because you're focused on what is really important."

Indeed, there have been several hiccups in the past few years, but the 62-year-old MP seems to take it in his stride, campaigning at such a frenetic pace colleagues admit it is often hard to keep up.

On this particular Saturday morning, the Premier is in Ballarat, which has two marginal seats the Liberals are desperate to snatch from Labor: Wendouree and Buninyong.

After a few photos with a horse statue in Sturt Street (designed to spruik the Ballarat Cup) the premier is driven to Wendouree to take part in McHappy Day - an annual event he usually attends in his own electorate.

"Hello, I'm Denis Napthine!" he booms as he enters McDonald's, greeting customers who seem slightly bemused their quiet breakfast has suddenly been interrupted. Within moments, he gets to work behind the counter serving pancakes and McMuffins, and later at the drive-through, where motorists seemed largely unfazed by the media circus.

"Thanks young man," says a woman in a blue Ford as Napthine passes her breakfast through the car window. "Have a great day!" he beams, as she drives off without a second glance.

McDonald's franchisee Laurie Nigro is pretty impressed by the attention Ballarat has received in the past few months, particularly the government's decision to move VicRoads headquarters to the region, bringing with it 600 jobs.

Nigro remembers a day in the '90s when Kennett came to Ballarat with a group of German businesses to talk up employment opportunities in the town. "It was fantastic," he says. "That's exactly the kind of thing we need."

Years later, economic growth remains vital. Like Melbourne, regional Victoria's population is booming, and with that growth comes inevitable challenges. Are there enough transport options? Is the tree-change phenomenon making house prices unaffordable? How to close the gaps between country and city schools? How can ice, alcohol, youth unemployment best be tackled?

Victorian Employers' Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Mark Stone says both major parties could make a difference by supporting more school-based apprenticeships, raising payroll tax threshold, or delivering regional infrastructure projects that include local content and apprenticeship targets. "Failure to act risks the prospect of a jobless generation," he says.

Labor, however, reckons the government has left it too late, pointing to the infrastructure budget (which is heavily geared to city-based projects) as an example of neglect. "It's one thing to say you're from country Victoria, but Denis Napthine and Peter Ryan don't act like they're for country Victoria," says Bendigo East MP Jacinta Allan.

Not surprisingly, Napthine disagrees. He argues youth unemployment figures are skewed because they don't account for the majority of young people who are in school, university or vocational education and training. He also defends the Coalition's TAFE credentials, insisting there is "more competition" and "more money" than ever before. And he rejects claims of city-centric infrastructure, accusing Labor of trying to "divide communities, and create the politics of envy".

Back at the Avoca Cup, in the marginal seat of Ripon, Napthine has finally managed to place a $20 bet on Tycoon Jewel, a four-year-old chestnut mare competing in Race 4. It's a winner. By that stage, it's mid-afternoon – the witching hour for racegoers drinking heavily in the Pyrenees sun – but Napthine doesn't seem troubled by the revelry. Nor does he seem tired, despite his hectic schedule: from McHappy Day, to an announcement at the Ballarat West Employment Zone, to lunch at the races, and then back to Melbourne for his annual multicultural dinner.

"Denis!" a group of blokes shout as he passes. "Can we have a photo, mate?!" Napthine obliges with a smile and a high-five.

"Isn't he gorgeous?" says a woman in a blue dress and large sunglasses. How do you rate him as a premier, I ask? "I think he's doing a pretty good job for Victoria," she replies, "and I'm a nurse".

The rowdy group of men who wanted a photo seem equally enthused. "He's a real man of the people," says one of them. We'll soon know if most voters agree.

Some of the key issues for regional Victoria this election

JOBS: Regional cities such as Geelong have been hard hit by a series of closures and companies downsizing since 2010. Target, Alcoa and Qantas have slashed hundreds of jobs and the city's main industry, auto manufacturing, has already lost 300 jobs at Ford.

The ALP has pledged to establish a $1 billion jobs fund to create 100,000 full-time jobs across the state and giving tax breaks to businesses that hire retrenched workers or young or long-time unemployed. The Coalition has promised to create 200,000 jobs over five years and to move VicRoad's headquarters to Ballarat and WorkCover to Geelong to boost jobs in the regions.

TAFE: The government's slashing of TAFE budgets in 2012 has resulted in wide-spread reduction in enrollments and courses offered across the state. TAFEs in regional Victoria, where youth unemployment it at its highest, have been especially hard-hit. Australian Education Union says half of the state's 14 TAFE's are in the red. The Coalition created a $200 million fund for struggling institutions. Meanwhile, the ALP has pledged to restore funding.

SCHOOLS: A scathing report from the Auditor-General has revealed the widening gulf between city and regional schools, with distance to schools, general social disadvantage and lower student aspirations among key factors keeping rural students behind metropolitan students. The Coalition promised to create a rural education strategy to lift standards. The ALP is yet to release its plans.

ICE: The illicit drug has swept through regional centres including Mildura, West Gippsland and Shepperton and has been linked to suicides and an increase in crime. A recent parliamentary inquiry into ice recommended more rehabilitation beds in country Victoria.

In September, the government announced a $2.7 million awareness campaign and $38 million for improved treatment and support, including a new mother-baby withdrawal unit.

FRACKING: A moratorium banning the mining of coal seam gas (fracking) in Victoria is in place until at least July 2015, but there is uncertainty on whether the controversial practice will be introduced after that, should the ban be lifted. Many landowners are opposed to fracking, which can significantly damage land, water and air quality. In October, the government launched a website detailing which properties mining companies could access.

WIND FARMS: The Coalition incurred the wrath of environmentalists by banning wind farms in the windiest parts of the state back in 2011. Friends of the Earth estimates the laws have cost the economy more than $850 million so far. The government has refused to back down, although it later allowed energy companies with existing permits to build wind farms. The ALP has pledged to scale back the law.

With Alana Schetzer