I originally wrote this diary back in Feburary, and decided to update it to where I see things stand as of now, less than two weeks from Election Day. You can find the original version here. Ratings that changed are bolded and preceded by this: --->.
The Wisconsin Senate Chamber. The Majority party sits in the outer row, while the Minority party sits in the inner row.
The Wisconsin Senate is divided into 33 districts; the odd numbered districts are up in midterm years while the even districts are up in presidential years. Republicans currently hold a 18-15 advantage in the chamber.
The filing deadline was June 2nd, 2014, so the field is set.
Join me below the cheese curd to learn more about the individual races.
Senate District 1: Door County, Two Rivers, Kimberly, De Pere, Brillion, Kewaunee
Incumbent: Frank Lasee (R)
52%-47% Romney 2012.
Senator Frank Lasee was first elected in 2010, succeeding his relative, Al, after serving 14 years in the Assembly. This district didn't change too much in redistricting, and leans Republican. Senator Lasee is popular, and while he has been somewhat loud in the past, I haven't heard a single piece of news on him since he dropped out of the 2012 US Senate race. Democrat Dean DeBroux is running against Lasee, but 2014 is not going to be a wave for either party in WI, so Lasee should win easily.
Rating: Likely Republican.
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Senate District 3: Milwaukee, West Milwaukee, West Allis, Greenfield
Incumbent: Tim Carpenter (D)
69%-30% Obama 2012.
Senator Tim Carpenter was elected to the Senate in 2002, after serving 18 years in the Assembly. This district got bluer in redistricting by shedding Archie Bunker types in Greenfield, while gaining West Milwaukee, and is safe Democratic. This district has the largest Hispanic population of any Senate district in the state. Senator Carpenter will cruise to re-election, as he is running unopposed. When Sen. Carpenter hangs it up someday, his successor will likely be Hispanic.
Rating: Safe Democratic
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Senate District 5: Wauwatosa, West Allis, Brookfield, Elm Grove, New Berlin
Incumbent: Leah Vukmir (R)
56%-43% Romney 2012.
Senator Leah Vukmir was elected the Senate in 2010, defeating incumbent Democratic Sen. Jim Sullivan. Vukmir succeeded Scott Walker (who still lives in this district in Wauwatosa) in the Assembly in 2002. This district has gotten much redder in redistricting by expanding westward into Wauke$ha County, and losing West Milwaukee. Despite Vukmir being fairly nutty, no Democrat filed against her, and she will cruise to another term, crushing her Libertarian opposition.
Rating: Safe Republican.
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Senate District 7: Milwaukee, Saint Francis, Cudahy, South Milwaukee, Oak Creek.
Incumbent: Chris Larson (D), Minority Leader.
59%-39% Obama 2012.
Senator Chris Larson, the Minority Leader, was first elected in 2010, after defeating sitting Sen. Jeff Plale in the Democratic primary. This district hardly changed at all in redistricting, only adding a few precincts here and there. This is a blended district, with the northern section (AD-19) being strongly Democratic, the middle section (AD-20) leaning Democratic, and the southern section (AD-21) leaning Republican. As a whole, however, this district is safe for Larson, or any other Democrat. Republican Red Arnold is running, but Larson will easily dispatch him.
Rating: Safe Democratic
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Senate District 9: Sheboygan, Manitowoc, Plymouth, Chilton Sheboygan Falls, Kohler.
Incumbent: Joe Leibham (R), retiring.
53%-46% Romney 2012.
Sen. Joe Leibham was elected to the Senate in 2002, narrowly defeating incumbent Sen. Jim Baumgart (D). This was a sign of how much this district had (and has continued to) trend Republican. While Sheboygan and Manitowoc are Democratic, everything else in the district is very Republican. Sen. Leibham gave up his Senate seat to run for Congress after Rep. Tom Petri announced his retirement, but narrowly lost the primary. Democrat Martha Laning has filed, and her chances greatly increased when Leibham ran for Congress. However, the son of State Rep. Dan LeMahieu, Devin, is running for the Republicans, and looks to be the narrow favorite in the race.
Rating: Safe Republican ---> Leans Republican.
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Senate District 11: Fort Atkinson, Delavan, Lake Geneva, Muckwonago, Elkhorn, Jefferson.
Incumbent: Neal Kedzie (R), retiring.
56%-43% Romney 2012.
Senator Neal Kedzie was elected to the Senate in 2002, after serving 6 years in the Assembly. This district got bluer in redistricting by losing most of its Wauke$ha County territory, and gaining blue Fort Atkinson and medium-red eastern Rock County, but it is still strongly Republican. Kedzie had announced last Spring that he would not run for another term, but in June, abruptly resigned to become the president of the WI Moter Carriers Association. Rep. Steve Nass is running for the Republicans, and looks likely to defeat Walworth County Board member Dan Kilkenny (D), in the district where Scott Walker grew up (Delavan).
Rating: Safe Republican.
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Senate District 13: Watertown, Beaver Dam, DeForest, Columbus, Oconomowoc, Lake Mills, Mayville, Waterloo, Hartford.
Incumbent: Scott Fitzgerald (R), Majority Leader.
56%-43% Romney 2012.
Senator Scott "Big Fitz" Fitzgerald, the Majority Leader, was elected to the Senate in 1994, defeating incumbent Barbara Lorman in the Republican primary. The further west you go in this district, the more Democratic it becomes. However, the Democratic strength is massively overwhelmed by Dodge County and Oconomowoc. This district also got slightly redder in redistricting. Though Big Fitz is somewhat controversial, he is popular in the redder parts of the district, and will easily dispatch Democrat Michelle Zahn, who is no Lori Compass (who interestingly was drawn out of this district).
Rating: Safe Republican.
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Senate District 15: Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Edgerton, Milton, Evansville, Broadhead, Oregon.
Incumbent: Tim Cullen (D), retiring.
62%-37% Obama 2012.
Tim Cullen was re-elected to the Senate in 2010 after originally being elected in 1974 (defeating incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Swan), and serving until he was tapped by Gov. Tommy Thompson to head the Department of Health and Family Services in 1987. Sen. Cullen announced his retirement, citing the hyper-partisanship that had become the reality at the Capitol during his absence from the Senate. Cullen also served as Majority Leader for a time during his first stint in the Senate. State Rep. Janis Ringhand is the Democratic nominee, after defeating former Assembly Speaker Mike Sheridan, and Austin Scieszinski in the primary. This district got even more Democratic in redistricting by shedding reddish western Rock County, and adding Evansville (and Rep. Ringhand), and parts of Dane and Green Counties, meaning that Ringhand will easily defeat Republican Brian Fitzgerald (no relation to Scott Fitzgerald), a member of the Janesville City Council.
Rating: Safe Democratic.
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Senate District 17: Platteville, Monroe, Boscobel, Dodgeville, Mauston, Reedsburg, Richland Center, Darlington.
Incumbent: Dale Schultz (R), retiring.
57%-42% Obama 2012.
Senator Dale Schultz was elected to the Senate in a 1991 special election, after serving 8 years in the Assembly. Sen. Schultz was to face a strong primary challenge from the right from State Rep. Howard Marklein after voting against many of Gov. Walker's major proposals. Schultz opted to retire instead of face an uphill primary battle. Had he won the primary, Schultz would have been strongly favored in the general. Don't let the Obama numbers fool you. This is an ancestrally Republican area (up until about he mid-2000s, Republicans ran virtually unopposed), and is redder the further down the ballot you go. Last cycle, I expected Democrats to pick up at least two of the three Assembly seats nested in SD-17, but it wasn't to be. Rep. Marklein, for example, was re-elected in AD-51 52%-48%, while Obama was winning it with 59%. Redistricting moved the district slightly to the right, but it was mainly swapping-out Prairie du Sac and Sauk City (66% Obama '08) with Monroe (62% Obama '08), and removing eastern Iowa County, and adding the rest of Richland County. Democrat Ernie Wittwer was originally assured the Democratic nomination untill state Democratic leaders, wary of Wittwer's poor fundraising, encouraged Pat Bomhack, who was running to succeed Marklein in the Assembly, to move up to the Senate race. On Primary Night, Wittwer looked to be the narrow winner by less than 10 votes, but after a recount clusterf*ck, Bomhack prevailed by 33 votes (he would have won anyway without the clusterf*ck that occurred). Marklein has two TV ads running, painting himself as a moderate, and the GOP-leaning Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce have been running two TV ads attacking Bomhack. Back in February, when I did the first iteration of this diary, I called SD-17 Lean Democratic. However, Marklein has been running strong, while Bomhack has been bogged down by the fact that he only moved to the district a few years ago, and lingering hard feelings from the primary. In Bomhack's favor is a non-endorsement endorsement from Sen. Schultz, who said, “I think Pat Bomhack is a good fit for the district because his values and positions on the issues that people care about, from my perspective, are similar to mine,” and that Marklein is “out of step” with the district. As of now, this race is a toss-up, and unfortunately tilting towards Marklein. But, Bomhack could pull it out.
Rating: Leans Democratic ---> Toss-up.
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Senate District 19: Appleton, Neenah, Menasha, Winneconne.
Incumbent: Mike Ellis (R), Senate President, retiring.
49%-49% Obama 2012 (Obama by 12 votes).
Senator Mike Ellis, the Senate President, was elected to the Senate in 1982, defeating incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Goyke (father of current Rep. Evan Goyke of Milwaukee), after serving 12 years in the Assembly. Sen. Ellis is regarded as a moderate (though not as moderate as Sen. Schultz), and is quite popular in this district. However, last April, a scandal broke out when a video showed Ellis discussing illegal campaign tactics, and Ellis then announced he would not run for another term, citing the video, and like his fellow retiring colleagues, a lack of compromise in Madison these days. Democrats were already running State Rep. Penny Bernard Schaber before Ellis dropped out. Republicans recruited former State Rep. Roger Roth, who served in the Assembly for two terms, and failed in a GOP primary for Congress in 2010. This district hardly changed in redistricting (basically, only the suburban Town of Center was dropped), but that change allowed Obama to win the district. Both candidates have stated that Schaber will win AD-57 (Appleton and Menasha), and Roth will win AD-56 (northern Appleton and Winneconne), and the battle will be in AD-56 (Neenah and some suburbs). This will be a tight race, and I now rate this race as a toss-up, but I think Roth as a slight advantage, given this is not a wave year in WI. Schaber could still pull out a win, though, and I think she has a slightly better chance than Pat Bomhack has in SD-17.
Rating: Leans Republican ---> Tossup.
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Senate District 21: Pleasant Prairie, Caledonia, Racine, Mount Pleasant, Union Grove, Burlington, Twin Lakes, Sturtevant.
Incumbent: John Lehman (D), retiring.
55%-44% Romney 2012.
Senator John Lehman was first elected to the Senate in 2006, after serving 10 years in the Assembly. He was swept out in the 2010 wave by Republican Van Wanggaaaaaaaaarad. Lehman then turned around and was narrowly swept back into the Senate as voters recalled Sen. Wanggaard. In redistricting, Lehman's district, and the neighboring 22nd District, were the most altered district in the state. Uber-blue Racine was removed and replaced by the conservative exurbs of western Kenosha County. Rather than run a suicide-run against Wanggaaaard, who is running again, Lehman decided to retire from the Senate, and is running for Lt. Governor as Mary Burke's running mate. 2011 22nd District recall candidate Jonathan Steitz (R) ran in the primary but Wanggaard easily defeated him. Randy Bryce is running for the Democrats, but Van Wanggaaaaaaaaaaaard looks to be easily returning to Madison.
Rating: Safe Republican.
Senate Districts 21 and 22. Textbook example of 'Packing and Cracking' type of gerrymandering. As many Democrats are packed into SD-22 as possible, while the remaining ones are cracked among the three Assembly districts nested in SD-21, ensuring no competition.
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Senate District 23: Chippewa Falls, Marshfield, Bloomer, Stratford, Neillsville, Osseo, Augusta, Stanley, Eau Claire, Altoona.
Incumbent: Terry Moulton (R)
51%-48% Romney 2012.
Senator Terry Moulton was elected to the senate in 2010, defeating incumbent Democrat Pat Kreitlow. Moulton previously served in the Assembly from 2005 to 2009. This district became redder in redistricting by loosing most of the Eau Claire territory it had, and picking up part of light-red Marshfield. Even though Romney only narrowly won this district, as previously mentioned, the main source of Democratic votes (Eau Claire) was removed. I just can't see Democrats winning this district, barring a wave. Democrat Phil Swanhorst is running, but Moulton looks pretty safe for another term. One bright spot for Democrats in this Senate district is AD-68, where Jeff Peck (D) seems to have a pretty good shot at knocking off Rep. Kathy Bernier (R).
Rating: Likely Republican.
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Senate District 25: Superior, Washburn, Ashland, Hurley, Spooner, Rice Lake, Phillips, Park Falls, Clear Lake, Cumberland,
Incumbent: Bob Jauch (D), retiring.
56%-43% Obama 2012.
Senator Bob Jauch was first elected to the Senate in 1986, after serving 4 years in the Assembly. Sen Jauch announced his retirement, like Sen. Cullen and Sen. Schultz, citing hyper-partisanship. State Rep. Janet Bewley (D) is the Democratic nominee. Republican Dane Deutsch is running again. This district changed slightly in redistricting, losing most of Sawyer County, but gaining Price County. This change made the district marginally more blue. Northern Wisconsin is trending Republican lately, and Sen Jauch was only narrowly re-elected in 2010. But, that was 2010. Rep. Bewley should be fine though, becoming the next senator from the 25th District. Due to this being an open seat in an off year in an are that is slowly but steadily trending Republican, I can't rate this as safe.
Rating: Likely Democratic.
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Senate District 27: Middleton, Verona, Waunakee, Mount Horeb, New Glarus, Ridgeway, Baraboo, Prairie du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Fitchburg.
Incumbent: Jon Erpenbach (D)
62%-37% Obama 2012.
Senator Jon Erpenbach was first elected to the Senate in 1998. This district changed in redistricting. Most of Green County was dropped, while eastern Sauk County and Portage were added, to help shore up Sen. Luther Olsen in the 14th District. This made this district slightly bluer. Of note, Russ Feingold's political career was started back in 1983 by winning an iteration of SD-27. No Republican (or any other candidate) filed in this district, but it wouldn't have mattered anyway. Sen. Erpenbach will sail to another term.
Rating: Safe Democratic.
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Senate District 29: Wausau, Mosinee, Medford, Ladysmith, Hayward, Rothschild, Schofield, Weston, Kronenwetter, Marshfield.
Incumbent: Jerry Petrowski (R)
52%-47% Romney 2012.
Senator Jerry Petrowski was elected to the Senate in a 2012 special election, after serving in the Assembly since 1998. There were two major changes to this district, each of which made it slightly redder. First, this district picked up part of the city of Marshfield and the village of Auburndale. Second, Price County was totally excised, in favor of adding most of Sawyer County. This district has zoomed to the right over the last few years. As late as 2006, it was safe for Democrats. Now, I have a hard time seeing Sen. Petrowski, who is fairly popular, not get a full four-year term. Democrat Paul DeMain is nevertheless, trying to unseat Petrowski.
Rating: Likely Republican.
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Senate District 31: Eau Claire, Prescott, Ellsworth, Durand, Mondovi, Galesville, Arcadia, Whitehall, Black River Falls.
Incumbent: Kathleen Vinehout (D)
54%-44% Obama 2012.
Senator Kathleen Vinehout was first elected to the Senate in 2006, defeating incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Brown. This is my home senate district, so I'm biased. I know and like Sen. Vinehout. In early October, I attended a Community Conversation fundraiser for her in my hometown. She seems to truly care about the people of SD-31 and Wisconsin. Like many districts, this one changed fairly significantly in redistricting, making it bluer. First, the remainder of Eau Claire was added to shore up Sen. Moulton. Also, western Pierce County was added because the Wisconsin extension of Michelle Bachmann-land (SD-10) had to shed people. Lastly, eastern Jackson and northern Monroe Counties were shed in order to more efficiently pack Democrats. Pierce County Board member Mel Pittman (I happen to know Pittman's campaign treasurer) is the Republican nominee, having defeated Pepin County Board member Bill Ingram in the GOP primary. If Sen. Vinehout could beat the popular brother of Tommy Thompson (the late Ed Thompson) in a redder district, in the most Republican year in recent memory, she should be able to easily beat Mr. Pittman this year in this iteration of SD-31.
Rating: Safe Democratic.
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Senate District 33: Wauke$ha, Delafield, Pewaukee, Sussex, North Prairie, Hartland, Merton, Oconomowoc Lake, Dousman, Chenequa, Nashotah, Wales.
Incumbent: Paul Farrow (R)
66%-33% Romney 2012.
Senator Paul Farrow was first elected in a 2012 special election. His mother, Margaret Farrow, was the Senator in this district during the '90s, before being tapped by Gov. Scott McCallum (I wonder what he's up to these days) to be Lt. Governor. This district changed in redistricting, in that it moved westward and southward. This didn't really effect the partisanship in any meaningful way, as it just dropped uber-red places in exchange for more uber-red places. It is solely in Wauke$ha County, after all. That also means that Sen. Farrow will have absolutely no trouble at all winning a full four-year term. Somewhat surprisingly, a Democrat by the name of Sherryll Shaddock is challenging Farrow, but this is Wauke$ha, after all.
Rating: Safe Republican.
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Overall Ratings:
Safe D: 3, 7, 15, 27, 31 (5)
Likely D: 25 (1)
Lean D: None (0)
Tossup: 17, 19 (2)
Lean R: 9 (1)
Likely R: 1, 23, 29 (3)
Safe R: 5, 11, 13, 21, 33 (5)
Pickups:
D to R: 21 (-1)
R to D: None (+-0)
Net Change: R+1 (-1)
Projected Senate: 19-14 Republican Majority.
Unfortunately, SD-17 doesn't look as good as it did back in February for Democrats. However, SD-09 and SD-19 moved in a favorable direction.
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Good for you if you made it this far in the diary. I will take any thoughts, praises or criticisms in the comments below. Thanks for reading!!!! On Wisconsin!!