Belardo will have to defy history to win 2000 Guineas
Last Updated: 22/10/14 3:08pm
Belardo will have to defy history if he's to win the QIPCO 2000 Guineas according to BHA handicapper Matthew Tester.
Soft ground and the fitting of a hood brought about an improved performance in the Dewhurst Stakes from Roger Varian's youngster but the BHA assessor is not convinced by the merit of the form.
Writing in the official handicapper's blog on the BHA website, Tester commented: "They were tough races to rate.
"There will be energetic debate in London when the European Handicappers get together to decide on the final classification. That will be announced in January and these are just my preliminary figures.
"At Doncaster he had finished only fourth to Estidhkaar who was giving him 3lb that day. At levels, though, somehow this was a different story. Estidhkaar was slowly away and never seemed to be on an even keel. Belardo came out of a pocket and quickened away up the hill for a comfortable win.
"My rating for him is 119, up to scratch for the race; but seven of the last 10 winners of the Dewhurst had rated higher.
"There have been quite a few Dewhurst winners at 10/1 or bigger in my time with the team – Parish Hall, Beethoven, Intense Focus, Milk It Mick and Tout Seul. And the truth is that, although they all turned out okay I do not believe that any of them ever ran to a higher rating in the rest of their careers.
"Belardo had already been beaten in two Group races before the Dewhurst. Maybe the soft ground was what brought the improvement. If so then he could be a real player in a soft-ground Guineas. No two-year-old is rated higher than him at the moment and he could be the one to defy history. After all, none of those others were our champion two-year-old and, at the moment, Belardo looks like he could be."
Tester was, however, more positive about the chances of Middle Park Stakes winner Charming Thought of making a mark in next year's Classic.
The Charlie Appleby-trained youngster was making his pattern race debut with a rating of 98 and emerged with a rating of 118, higher than the last three winners of the Group One.
"I was surprised by the win of Charming Thought," Tester remarked.
"But the more I thought about how he had been brought on, the more comfortable I felt with the idea that he really could be that good. On pedigree there is a fair chance that he will stay 1m next year so I hope to see him line up for the Guineas too."
To read Matthew Tester's blog in full and for a race-by-race run through of QIPCO British Champions Day visit http://www.britishhorseracing.com/british-champions-weekend/