5 House races may predict political tide
WASHINGTON — Will Republicans make history in the House on Nov. 4?
Just about every independent political analyst agrees that Democrats won't be able to score the net gain of 17 seats they need to regain the majority in the House of Representatives. The question that could make election night interesting is whether Republicans will be able to gain enough seats to claim their biggest majority in decades.
Republicans now hold 233 seats, and one of the three House vacancies is considered safely Republican. Doing the math, that means:
· If they gain nine more seats, the GOP would have the biggest majority they've held since Harry Truman was president.
· If they gain 13 seats, they would have the biggest majority since the Roaring 20s.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report now forecasts a Republican gain of two to 10 House seats, and The Rothenberg Political Report forecasts a gain of four to 10 seats. So it's entirely possible that Republicans will come back in January with their biggest majority in six decades.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot in November. While most of them are considered locks for one side or the other, there are a handful of competitive races.
Florida's 2nd congressional district, in the Panhandle, is one of several races this year that feature second-generation politicians. In this case, it's Gwen Graham, daughter of former Florida governor and senator Bob Graham. She's challenging Republican Rep. Steve Southerland.
In one of several rematches, in Arizona's 2nd congressional district, Republican Martha McSally is trying again to defeat Rep. Ron Barber, a former aide to Rep. Gabby Giffords. Giffords represented the district until she was injured in an assassination attempt in 2011. This race has drawn millions of dollars in independent expenditures, some of it focused on gun laws.
And New York's 11th district makes it clear how hard it is to defeat most incumbents. Rep. Michael Grimm of Staten Island has been indicted for fraud, tax evasion and perjury — and the Republican is still in a competitive race against Democrat Domenic Recchia. Good news for Grimm: His trial on federal fraud and perjury charges isn't scheduled to start until after Election Day.
Watch the video above to see which other House races you should keep an eye on.