By Japan K Pathak, Ahmedabad, 20 October 2014

Nationalist Congress Party(NCP)’s offer to support the BJP led government in Maharshtra surprised everyone in Sunday afternoon when results were still being announced.

NCP leader Praful Patel shared party’s decision with media persons after meeting of NCP led by party’s founder and president Sharad Pawar.

“The people of Maharashtra have not given mandate to any single party. No party is in a position to form a stable government on its own. Keeping in mind the interest of Maharashtra people, we feel we should support the party which can form the government. Maharashtra needs a stable government. BJP has emerged as single largest party and we feel that we should given them support from outside so that they can form the government in the interest of the stability and development of the state,” Praful Patel said.

BJP leaders who until Sunday afternoon were rubbishing any possibility of go with NCP, soon changed their tone and started giving statement that parliamentary board will take decision on NCP’s proposal.

In the evening, party president Amit Shah refusing to respond to questions on whether his party was debating an alliance with the NCP, said, “You only saw half of what Mr Patel said. He said the verdict is for the BJP and so we offer unconditional support. NCP has offered to extend outside support – an alliance would mean being in the government.”

On Twitter, many BJP supporters indicated their displeasure with any possibility of BJP taking NCP’s support. This was indicative. Large number of BJP supporters support the party due to its ideology. They are not paid, they hardly need BJP leaders for personal gain. They work for BJP because they like its ideology. If BJP goes with NCP, its cadre may not like such decision.

Some doubted Adani’s hand, some doubted that NCP wants immunity against possible probe into its scams. Following are my observations:

-BJP has emerged as the largest single party in Maharashtra which is one of the biggest and most crucial states in India. Unlike Delhi, here in Maharashtra BJP wants to make government, and doesn’t want to allow President’s rule or any other possibility.
-BJP has no majority to form government on its own.
-BJP can’t go with Congress.
-BJP has to go with either Shiv Sena or NCP.
-Balasaheb Thackeray era has been over in Shiv Sena. The party is represented by his son Uddhav Thackeray who is surrounded by vicious, negative, unfriendly and shallow characters like Sanjay Raut. Shiv Sena has not remained a smooth ally therefore. If BJP seeks support of Shiv Sena, there could be a long list of demands on table from Shiv Sena side. It may or may not include, good posts in centre, crucial ministries in state cabinet, the post of deputy chief minister, the post of chief minister for 2.5 years etc.
-Yes, Shiv Sena has ideological match with BJP so far as Hindutva is concerned. But that’s it. BJP doesn’t support Shiv Sena’s extreme Marathi stand. BJP supporters are asking that the party that supported Pratibha Patil for the post of president, the party that supported emergency can not be ideological match to BJP. Shiv Sena had been BJP’s ally for 25 years, but everything comes with expiry date. Everything deserves re-look.
– In such case, seeking support from Shiv Sena means succumbing to hard bargain and unpleasant compromise.
-The other option is NCP.
-NCP has been described by Narendra Modi as Naturally Corrupt Party. BJP has won election against NCP and Congress. NCP’s number of scams in Maharshtra and even in UPA deserve probe. NCP’s Sharad Pawar and Praful Patel are known as some of the most corrupt politicians in India. There’s Congress and just Congress in NCP’s DNA.
-In such case, BJP just can’t walk to NCP to seek support or to form alliance.
-However NCP has extended its outside support to BJP voluntarily(at least in perception).
-NCP has offered outside support without declaring any condition attached to it. We don’t know if there are some conditions attached or understandings finalized behind the curtain. So outside support means just adding number to allow you to govern. Outside support unconditionally means no conditions, no burden attached. But, obligation attached? Certainly, if not on frontal side, certainly behind the curtain.
-In purely Facebook language, NCP has clicked ‘follow’ button on BJP’s Facebook profile. NCP has not sent any ‘friend request’. So there’s no question of BJP accepting or rejecting it!
-NCP is strong in parts of Maharashtra due to number of cooperatives and institutions run by its leaders. Such units need friendly government in state. NCP has chosen to ally with power ever since its birth. In all these years, it has seen power by alignment with Congress. Now Congress is not in power for at least next five-ten years. CBI probe into some of the scams may bring some top NCP leaders to jail. NCP has no or negligible presence outside Maharashtra. Even in Maharashtra, after spending lot of money and employing all efforts, NCP has been able to win just 41 seats. To remain a relevant political force at least in its core constituencies, NCP has to ally with relevant political force at state level.
-NCP’s announcement gives upper hand to BJP while negotiating post-poll alliance with Shiv Sena(if negotiations take place). It can protect BJP against unpleasant and unaccepted compromises.
-BJP would like to prefer to go along with Shiv Sena, but on its own terms. BJP has successfully created perception that if Shiv Sena continues to throw tantrums, Shiv Sena will stay without power, and BJP will form minority government with outside support of NCP just for the sake of numbers.
-But whether outside support of NCP will be compromise-free deal for BJP? Perhaps scams will not be probed, local institutions of NCP will not see hostile government at state and central levels, BJP leadership will attract some negative response from purely ideological cadre. That’s it.
-Like PV Narsimha Rao, BJP can form and successfully run a minority government.
-There are 7 independents, some MLAs from other parties may file resignation to support BJP at this point or in the future.
-At present, BJP is exploring all options.
-People will soon forget this election and will not care about who are the allies, or how majority had been achieved. People will not mind if BJP delivers an excellent government.
-Congress men who supported AAP in Delhi, joined convicted corrupt Lalu in Bihar, who took support of left parties(that had won 45 seats against Congress)for UPA-1 have no moral ground to point finger at BJP when BJP has received NCP’s unconditional outside support without seeking it.