Women not flocking to Democrats in key Senate races

WASHINGTON — Democrats in key races may lose the women voters who have propelled the party to victory in recent elections.

In a trio of swing states — Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa — Democratic Senate candidates are capturing a narrower margin of female support than in recent elections, while men are solidly backing Republicans. That gender gap appears to favor the GOP as these races tighten in the final stretch of the midterm elections.

In Colorado, the gap is especially stark. According to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday, the latest public survey in the race, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall has a 9-percentage-point advantage among women, while Republican Rep. Cory Gardner has a 19-percentage-point advantage among men. Gardner leads overall, 47%-41%.

"The numbers right now would lead one to believe that the strength that Cory Gardner has with men outweighs the strength that Udall has with women," said Tim Malloy, assistant director for the Quinnipiac poll. "Women have always been the strong suit, and Udall is not getting great numbers from women, which he needs."

Chris Harris, a Udall spokesman, disputed the poll's findings. Colorado public polls in 2012 and 2010 inaccurately predicted GOP victories. The poll also does not account for Udall's field operation. "We have flipped on the (get-out-the-vote) switch," said Harris, noting that mail-in ballots went out this week.

The gender gap is a constant in American politics: Women historically vote more Democratic, and men historically vote more Republican. The gap tends to favor Democrats because more women vote. In all of these races, Democrats enjoy more support from women, but the margins are narrower than in previous elections that delivered the party victories and up against more resounding support for Republican candidates among men.

Facing a tough midterm political climate this year, Democrats in every competitive race have made overt, targeted efforts to motivate women to vote Democratic.

Democrats in this trio of states have focused heavily on abortion rights, contraception access and other female-targeted wedge issues.

It's not clear whether those efforts are translating. Rob Collins, the executive director of the Senate GOP campaign operation, said Thursday he believes the messaging efforts around female reproductive rights have turned off swing women voters in these states. "This isn't the only thing that women care about," he said. "This is why they have not been able to maximize their gains despite massive investments on this issue."

In Iowa's open seat Senate race, Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley trails Republican Joni Ernst, 47%-43%, in the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll out this week. Braley has a 5-percentage-point advantage among Iowa women in the poll, while Ernst has a 13-percentage-point lead among Iowan men. When incumbent Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin won re-election in 2008, by comparison, he won women voters by 29 percentage points and men by 18 points.

Friday, the non-partisan Cook Political Report upped the ante in New Hampshire, changing the race's rating from leaning toward Democrats to a tossup. Former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown, a Republican, has tightened the race against incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

Shaheen has a narrower margin of support from women than she attracted in her victory in 2008. Women tend to vote in greater numbers in presidential elections. Brown is polling well among men. In the latest New Hampshire poll conducted by New England College, Shaheen has an 8.6-point lead among women while Brown leads by 12 points among men. Brown led overall, 48%-47%. The survey is the only public survey to give Brown the advantage.

"In my view, one explanation for this change has to do with increased security concerns by voters," said New England College professor Wayne Lesperance. Brown has focused heavily on national security issues in his campaign. "Between the airstrikes on ISIS and the fear associated with Ebola, I believe we may be seeing the re-emergence of the 'security mom' dynamic among female voters." That dynamic could tilt women voters to the GOP.

Shripal Shah, a Shaheen campaign adviser, said the campaign is confident that Shaheen will win and that women voters will help get her across the finish line because "New Hampshire women don't trust Scott Brown." Shaheen's campaign has focused on her support for equal pay legislation and female reproductive rights. "We're going to make sure women know the truth about his record, and that's going to make the difference in November," Shah said.