By Chris Roots
Peter Moody-trained duo Lidari and Brambles were outside chances to get a run in Saturday's Caulfield Cup a week ago, but after a couple of days of scratchings, they are second and third favourites for the $3 million group 1.
That sums up the nature of the week, in particular Thursday and Friday – unpredictable and perhaps unprecedented.
In the mix: One-time emergency Peter Moody's Lidari is now among the most fancied runners for the Caulfield Cup.Credit: Vince Caligiuri
"The market has been turned on its head, as has the race," TAB's Glenn Munsie said. "There is always an attrition rate in these big races but never like this, after the final field has been drawn. Four scratchings is amazing. Is anything else going to come out?
"Lidari and Brambles weren't going to get a start at the beginning of the week – that's why they were $26 and $31 – but now they are in the field and genuine chances, especially the way the race will be run. It sums it up really.
"I can't remember anything like that happen in a major race in my time. The market has been reshaped almost hourly in the past couple of days because of all the drama, not because of big betting."
Lidari only got a start in the Caulfield Cup when My Ambivalent failed to accept on Tuesday and was still a $17 chance then. Brambles was an emergency and was the first to benefit from the scratching frenzy.
After the barrier draw on Tuesday night, Bande and Dandino were the second and third picks in betting behind Lucia Valentina, but both have since been scratched because of tendon injury and are unlikely to run in the Melbourne Cup.
Gris Caro was ruled out because of lameness on Thursday and Dear Demi joined the casualty list on Friday because of a throat infection. While Gai Waterhouse-trained The Offer was passed by Racing Victoria vets on Friday, it will again be inspected when he arrives at Caulfield on Saturday.
The only constant in the 2400-metre classic seems to have been favourite Lucia Valentina.
"She has been our favourite since her first-up win in the Tramway Stakes," Munsie said. "She is $3.80 now and that's just because of the horses we have lost in the last couple of days. She is still popular with punters but the scratchings have seen her shorten from $5.50 at the beginning of the week.
"To put it in perspective, Dandino and Bande were two of our three worst ways in prepost betting, and Bande had been shortened $8.50 to $7, such was the confidence around his chances.
"Without Bande there, the race has lost all its speed and it is going to be even more important to be in the first half of the field because there is no speed in the race."
The scratchings have let young English trainer Archie Alexander, who has set a stable in Ballarat, have a Cup runner in Renew. It will be ridden by teenage apprentice Regan Bayliss. Renew is in transition after quarantine and will eventually move into the care of Chris Waller.
Meanwhile, the Japanese connection left without commenting from the Werribee quarantine centre after Racing Victoria's head vet ruled Bande out of the Caulfield Cup on Friday morning.
Brian Stewart said the decision to scratch Bande was "straight forward" from a veterinary perspective and he cast severe doubt on whether the $12 chance in the Melbourne Cup would run at Flemington on the first Tuesday in November.
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"There probably needs to be some scans done to see how serious the strain and damage to the tendon is. I would probably reserve judgment until then, but my initial impression is that a tendon injury of that sort of extend is not going to recover in a short period."
The process was drawn out over 45 minutes from the point of the inspection but Stewart said the decision was clear cut.
"They certainly argued their case that it's been a chronic, long-standing problem and the injury is no worse than it has been for some time," he said.
"They were obviously unhappy but mainly [the delay] was related to them having an opportunity for the foreman to at least consult and advise the trainer and the connections that the horse was coming out before the decision went public."