Narendra Modi stirs a storm, but no straw in the wind still

Sananda responded by saying, “The BJP claimed that one lakh had gathered for Modi’s rally. But let me tell you the venue couldn’t accommodate more than 50,000 and many corners were still empty. I invite you all to witness our leader Rahul Gandhi’s rally on October 12 and you will see our strength.”

The brave face put up by Sananda and his supporters only reflects the jitters in the Congress camp over how the Modi factor will play out this time. Reports of huge response to his rallies has pressed panic buttons in Congress camps in west Vidarbha comprising Amravati, Akola, Buldana, Washim, Yavatmal and Wardha districts, where the party  has 13 of its 24 existing seats in Vidarbha, the rest being in east Vidarbha’s Nagpur, Chandrapur, Gadchiroli, Gondia and Bhandara districts.

Compared to BJP and Sena’s six seats each in this part, west Vidarbha is clearly a Congress stronghold. But for the hitherto immeasurable Modi effect, the existing scene doesn’t really appear to give the BJP or the Congress, the two biggest parties in the region, a clear lead.

From Wardha to Buldana, contests at only a handful of places appear in favour of a particular contestant or a party, thanks to an unprecedented number of leaders across parties switching their loyalists following the breaking of Cong-NCP and BJP-Sena alliances.

Post-alliance history favours Congress

Theoretically, due to alliance splits, the Congress should lose less in Vidarbha than the BJP since it has won here mostly on its own strength, with the NCP having a poor base with only four seats.

On the other hand, BJP and Sena, having their own strong following, have propped each other well over the years.

In the alliance years since 1990, the Congress has had a low and a high of 18 and 26 seats in Vidarbha compared to BJP’s 13 and 22.

The third biggest party, Shiv Sena, has had between 8 and 11 seats across the region in the post-1990 elections.

The results in the Lok Sabha polls too has not dented Congress’s fortunes in the Assembly polls here so far. Even after its earlier worst Lok Sabha poll performance of 2004, when it had won only the Nagpur seat, the party won 21 Assembly seats in the region compared to 24 in 2009, when it won five Lok Sabha seats along with NCP.

Clearly, future of BJP minus Sena broadly hinges on the Modi effect and a possible anti-incumbency against the Congress-NCP regime, apart from local factors and last-minute crossovers leading to multi-cornered fights.

Here’s how the four parties are faring in their strongest bastions in west Vidarbha.

CONG BASTIONS

Wardha

Of the four Assembly seats here, Wardha and Deoli-Pulgaon were won four times and Arvi thrice by the Congress in the five elections since 1990. Hinganghat was won by Shiv Sena thrice in a row since 1999.

This time, rebellions and crossovers have made the scene complex in Wardha. Congress’s Shekhar Shende is son of five-time winner and former Assembly Speaker late Pramod Shende while NCP has fielded sitting Independent MLA Suresh Deshmukh, who has suffered a loss of face due to the failure of Wardha District Co-operative Bank as well as sinking of the other co-operative ventures. The BJP has fielded a young and forceful candidate, Neeraj Gujar, but the party faces a rebellion in the ranks. In all, the picture is extremely confusing.

Deoli-Pulgaon: Sitting Congress MLA and former minister Ranjit Kamble faces a tough challenge from former BJP MP Suresh Waghmare due to split of alliance with NCP, which has fielded Shashank Ghodmare.

Arvi: It’s BJP vs Congress again with sitting BJP MLA Dadarao Keche facing off Congress’s Amar Kale, who  may benefit from split of votes in BJP due to NCP fielding his cousin Sandip, who was with Keche last time.

AMRAVATI

It’s Congress vs BJP again. Sitting Congress MLA Rajendra Shekhawat, son of former president Pratibha Patil, faces a serious challenge from former Congress MLA Sunil Deshmukh, who has just defected to BJP. Sena’s Pradip Bajad is not expected to gain much despite the reserved LS seat going to party since the Maratha votes are expected to swing this time in Deshmukh’s favour. NCP candidate Ganesh Kharkar and BSP’s Mirza Baig may not make much difference either. In all, it’s a evenly poised contest.

BULDANA

Khamgaon: Sitting Congress MLA Sunil Sananda is facing a serious challenge from BJP’s Akash Phundkar, son of former state BJP chief Bhausaheb Phundkar. The Congress’s problems are further compounded by Bharip Bahujan Mahasangh (BBM), which has fielded a credible face, Ashok Sonone. BBM led by Prakash Ambedkar has a strong hold in the belt and division of secular votes might prove to be Sanandas’s undoing.

WASHIM

Risod: Three-time winner Congress won a by-election just a few months ago following the sudden death of its sitting MLA Subhash Zanak. Zanak’s son Amit as its candidate, the Congress is sitting pretty despite NCP fielding one of his relatives, Babarao Patil Khadse. BJP’s Vijay Jadhav is more likely to be affected by split with Sena, which has fielded Vishwanath Sanap.

YAVATMAL

Although Shiv Sena’s Bhavna Gawli has won the LS seat four times, the district, much in news for the highest number of farmers’ suicides, has always been a Congress bastion in Assembly elections. It currently has five Congress, one NCP and one Shiv Sena MLAs. Places where the party has been virtually invincible are Ralegaon and Wani, where it has won four out of five last elections.

Ralegaon (ST): Currently held by deputy speaker of the outgoing Maharashtra Legislative Assembly and former education minister Vasant Purke, the Congress is going strong this time too, with Purke leading the charge against BJP’s Asho Uike. Shiv Sena’s Uttam Madavi and NCP’s Milin Dhurve have little bases of their own.

Wani: Here too, Congress has won four of the last five contests. But this time, its sitting MLA Waman Kasawar is struggling against former MLA Vishwas Nandekar of the Shiv Sena. Kasawar faces internal opposition and had declared at a press conference some time back that he and his son won’t contest elections.

SENA BASTIONS

Daryapur (Akola): In this reserved (SC) seat, won four times by Prakash Bharsakle now fighting on BJP ticket at Akot, Sena MP Anand Adsul’s son Abhijeetis is currently leading since the BJP has little base in the constituency. BSP’s Balwankt Wankhede, Congress’s Siddharth Wankhede and BJP’s Ramesh Bundile are following closely behind.

Hinganghat (Wardha): It’s BJP vs Sena vs NCP here. BJP’s Samir Kunawar, who fought as an Independent in 2009, had lost by only a few hundred votes to Sena’s three-time winner and sitting MLA Ashok Shinde. Former MLA Raju Timande of NCP also poses a strong challenge to both.

Akot (Akola): Prakash Bharsakle of the Shiv Sena, who had won the adjoining Daryapur seat four times, is forging ahead here as a BJP candidate this time. Opposite him are Sanjay Gawande of the Shiv Sena, Mahesh Gangane of the Congress and Raju Koche of the NCP, but Bharsakle brings his Sena following along with him and benefits from Congress-NCP split.

BJP BASTIONS

Malkapur (Buldana): This is one seat that the BJP has lost only once (1995) in the last five elections, that too to its own rebel Chainsukh Sancheti, who incidentally is the four-time winner from here. This is one constituency that has strong BJP base in almost all villages. Sancheti is back in contention as the BJP candidate against all his opponents.
Murtixapur (Akola): The BJP has won this seat thrice in the last five elections and sitting MLA Harish Pimple is hoping to romp home, thanks to Cong-NCP split. Sena has little presence here, so Pimple is unaffected by its candidate Gajanan Galve, considered an outsider. But Pimple faces wrath of local RSS followers for allegedly extending a helping hand to Muslims on the issues of abattoir and the riots at Kurum but he has strong backing of Nitin Gadkari, according to local BJP sources. Congress nominee Sharavan Ingle had defected from Prakash Ambedkar’s Bharip Bahujan Mahasangh following differences. NCP’s Sudhir Vilhekar is considered no better alternative to Pimple either.

NCP BASTION

Pusad (Yavatmal): Sitting MLA Manohar Naik of the NCP is the scion of the illustrious Naik family that gave Maharashtra two chief ministers – late Vasantrao Naik and Sudhakarrao Naik. The Banjara community-dominated constituency has never been won by any candidate other than the Naiks and this time too, Naik’s victory is considered a given despite his failure to run the co-operative institutions here successfully. The Congress has fielded a young Dhangar community candidate Sachin Naik, but he is considered no match to the veteran since there is virtually no splitting of vote here. Most winning votes have always belonged to the NCP exclusively here.
Shiv Sen has fielded a new entrant, former MLA Prakash Patil Deosarkar from neighbouring Umarkhed, while BJP’s Vasantrao Kanetkar is oldest among all in a constituency that has no BJP base.