Credit Suisse said Macau's 3Q headline revenue (GGR) declined 7% YoY or 9% QoQ, on the back of tight junket liquidity, China's anti-corruption fight and the transit visa tightening effective 1 July.
It thus expects EBITDA to fall 3% QoQ.
Credit Suisse believes EBITDA for Wynn (+5% QoQ, full-year 2014 staff bonus was all booked in 2Q14 already) should show the strongest QoQ improvement, followed by Sands China
(+2% QoQ). SJM should show the weakest sequential EBITDA trend, of -19% QoQ, on market share loss, low VIP luck and cost pressure from staff bonus provision announced in August.
Trading at 15x 2015 P/E (1 sd below the avg of 18.8x) with 5% dividend yield, Macau stocks' valuation does not look demanding. However, the uncertainty over the smoking ban impact, slowing mass momentum and tough YoY comparison for October may weigh on shares, near term. A more sustainable rally may happen in late-October/ November.
The research house fine-tuned its 2014-16 earnings across the sector and slightly adjusted its target prices as follows:
Name Rating Target Price
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MGM China (02282) OUTPERFORM HK$30 (unchanged)
Sands China (01928) OUTPERFORM HK$57.4 (from HK$57.1)
MPEL (06883) OUTPERFORM US$32 (from US$39.5) or HK$83.2 (from HK$102.7)
Galaxy (00027) NEUTRAL HK$54.7 (from HK$55)
Wynn Macau (01128) NEUTRAL HK$29 (unchanged)
SJM (00880) NEUTRAL HK$17.8 (from HK$17.6)
Melco (00200) OUTPERFORM HK$22.1 (from HK$22.8)
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