In a potentially important race to Republican efforts to retake control of the Senate, the results of a new CNN/ORC International poll show GOP challenger Dan Sullivan leading incumbent Alaska Sen. Mark Begich, D-Ak.
The poll found that 50 percent of likely Alaska voters would choose Sullivan if the election were held today, while 44 percent said they would vote for Begich.
In a potentially troubling sign for Begich, 83 percent of likely voters said they have made up their minds a month before Election Day.
Sullivan, who previously served as Attorney General of Alaska as well as Commissioner of the state's Department of Natural Resources, leads among many of the poll's subgroups.
The poll showed Sullivan with a 51 percent to 44 percent lead among women and a 50 percent to 45 percent lead among voters in Anchorage, where Begich served two terms as mayor.
"Begich is losing on his home turf, and he is not winning among women, a weakness that few Democrats can overcome on Election Day," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
Alaska's Republican Governor Sean Parnell does not fare as well in the poll, however, as he trails independent candidate Bill Walker by 45 percent to 51 percent among likely voters.
CNN noted that there is no Democratic candidate to split the anti-Parnell vote after Byron Mallott dropped out to become Walker's running mate.
The CNN/ORC survey of 704 likely Alaska voters was conducted October 1st through 6th and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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