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NCP’s western hopes tick away

Ever since its inception in 1999, the party’s mainstay has been this region.

At a time when the NCP faces its toughest election battle, political formulations in its traditional citadels of western and southern Maharashtra should bring it some hope. For, despite the saffron surge, the party appears set for a credible performance in the sugar belt.

Ever since its inception in 1999, the party’s mainstay has been this region, where senior NCP leaders control a majority of the cooperatives. This belt even withstood the Narendra Modi juggernaut to an extent, giving the NCP all four of its LS MPs.

The party looks well-placed to retain a large majority of the seats it won in 2009 even if it is unable to consolidate further. “The voters of western Maharashtra have always stood by Sharad Pawar. We have high hopes from the region and will see the maximum candidates elected from here,” said NCP spokesperson Ankush Kakade.

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Anti-incumbency against the Congress-NCP government, however, is perceptible, as is Narendra Modi’s influence over voters. Still, as senior political analyst Vasant Bhosale says, “The likelihood of division of votes between the Shiv Sena and the BJP in the Maratha-dominated belt has bolstered the NCP’s prospects. Even the Congress could cash in.”

The saffron parties are seeking to make inroads in this belt, where the fight for the top two slots has traditionally been between the NCP and the Congress. “The absence of a strong grassroots network is a serious impediment for both saffron parties,” says Bhosale, pointing out that several candidates of the saffron camp were actually second-rung Congress or NCP leaders who have switched sides.

Festive offer

Caste politics could also come into play. The BJP and the Sena both lack a credible Maratha face. The BJP’s unease with this was visible in Narendra Modi’s invocation of Chhatrapati Shivaji and Bal Thackeray in his first election campaign in the region in Tasgaon, Sangli, on Sunday.

In southern Maharashtra’s districts of Sangli, Satara and Kolhapur, the NCP goes into the final leg of campaigning in pole position to stay number one. In the 2009 polls, the party won nine of the 26 seats in the sub-region. It also bagged the support of three independent legislators, all now contesting on NCP tickets. The Congress finished second, winning five seats and bagging the support of another independent legislator, who too has bagged the Congress’s official ticket this time. The BJP and the Shiv Sena managed four and three respectively.

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On the ground, the NCP and the Congress both appear capable of retaining their positions. Several heavyweights including Prithviraj Chavan, Patangrao Kadam, Satej Patil and Sushil Kumar Shinde’s daughter Praniti (all Congress), and NCP heavyweight Jayant Patil, R R Patil, Shashikant Shinde and Shivaji’s descendent Shivendraraje Bhosale, are contesting from this belt.

Pune

On the home turf of Sharad Pawar, the LS results rang alarm bells for both the Congress and the NCP as the Shiv Sena-BJP won three of the four seats. Moreover, the NCP-Congress was bettered by the Sena-BJP in 18 of the 21 assembly segments of Pune. In the Baramati Lok Sabha seat won by Supriya Sule, the NCP managed to post leads in only three assembly segments — Baramati, Indapur and Purandar. This time, the NCP expects to retain its hold on Pune where it had won eight of the 21 seats last time.

Satara

If there is any district where the NCP would be absolutely confident, that would be Satara, from where Udayanraje Bhosale won the LS election. The NCP had won four of the eight assembly seats in the previous election. The decision to induct independent legislators Balasaheb Desai (Karad North) and Makarand Patil (Wai) has bolstered the NCP’s prospects in Satara. The NCP is also seen as favourite to retain Koregaon (Shashikant Shinde) and Jawali (Shivendraraje).

The Shiv Sena, however, is hopeful about wresting Patan from the NCP, with party candidate Shambhuraj Desai, a Congressman originally, considered to have an edge over the NCP’s Satyajit Patankar. In Phaltan, the NCP is slugging it out with the Congress.

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The Congress is banking on victories for Prithviraj Chavan (Karad South) and Jaykumar Gore (Mann-Khatau) , but both candidates are in for a stiff contest. While Chavan is squaring up against party rebel and seven-time MLA Vilaskaka Undalkar, Gore faces his own brother, Shekhar. The BJP has little of a presence here.

Sangli

A communal riot just before the 2009 polls had resulted in gains for the BJP in Sangli, traditionally a Congress bastion. The BJP won three of the eight seats here, but the division of the saffron vote this time make these tough to retain.

The Sena had not won a single seat here in 2009, but hopes to dent the BJP’s prospects in at least one seat, Sangli. Sitting BJP legislator Sambhaji Pawar’s son Prithviraj has now bagged the Sena ticket.

NCP heavyweights Jayant Patil (Islampur) and R R Patil (Tasgaon) go into the final leg with a clear edge. The BJP has pitted former Congressman and RR’s arch rival Ajit Ghorpade against him, whereas it has tied up with other parties including the Shiv Sena to back an independent candidate against Jayant.

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In Shirala, the NCP’s Mansingrao Naik, who had won as an independent last time, is considered to be lagging against BJP’s Shivajirao Naik. The presence of a Congress candidate (legislative council chairman Shivajirao Deshmukh’s son Satyajit) could mar Mansingrao’s prospects. While the BJP has pitted former NCP leader Prithviraj Deshmukh against the Congress’s Patangrao Kadam from Palus, the latter is seen to have the edge at this stage. This is the NCP’s real test, its leader having switched over to the BJP ahead of elections. Its legislator Sanjaykaka Patil also won the LS election from here on a BJP ticket, defeating a Congressman here for the first time since Independence, leading to many more NCP leaders switching to the BJP.

Kolhapur

The race is intriguing in Kolhapur, where the NCP faces a serious challenge from the Congress, the Sena, and the Swabhimaani Sanghatana. The NCP has its hopes high after the party candidate beat the Modi wave in the Lok Sabha election. The NCP’s Hasan Mushrif (Kagal) and K P Patil (Radhanagari) look firm favourites.

Ironically, despite the saffron surge, the BJP might find the going tough in retaining its lone seat here, Ichalkaranji, which it had wrested from the Congress after the Sangli communal riot. The region abuts Sangli. The BJP’s plan to unseat Congress bigwig Satej Patil from Kolhapur South by giving a ticket to Congress rival Amal Mahadik appears to be losing steam. The Shiv Sena hopes to retain most of its seats, though it might not be in a position to consolidate further.

First uploaded on: 08-10-2014 at 00:37 IST
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