While she is away

But what if the lawyers fail to get the sentence stayed and the conviction reversed? What if they fail to win a reprieve for Jayalalithaa before 2016, when the state is headed for polls? And will Jayalalithaa, with the taint of corruption, be able to keep her base intact and win a fresh mandate for Panneerselvam’s government? Will the party stay intact if its 66-year-old leader can’t contest elections for a decade?

There is no indication yet that the public mood has turned against Jayalalithaa. Since the general election in May, when she nearly swept the state, winning 37 of 39 seats, Jayalalithaa has been riding high. Though helped by a divided opposition, her win was seen as an endorsement of her policies and style of governance.

Since the late-1980s, when she took control of the AIADMK after the death of its founder-leader and her mentor, MGR, Jayalalithaa has transformed the party into an extension of her image. In her present term, she branded governance in her own name. Today, Brand Amma, has subsumed politics in Tamil Nadu. Populist schemes are not new to the state, but never has any leader branded and appropriated them as she has.

From food and water to cement, Amma is a brand that delivers inexpensive goods and services to the public, with women as the main target group. By seeking action against Colombo for genocide, a subtle Tamil sub-nationalist strand became evident in Jayalalithaa’s brand. The branding helped when she launched a presidential-style campaign for the general election, with her supporters portraying her as the PM-in-waiting.

The DMK patriarch, M. Karunanidhi, weighed down by the 2G scam involving his family, could not match her high-voltage campaign. While she was portrayed as a decisive leader, he was seen as an ageing patriarch presiding over a squabbling family.

Interestingly, Karunanidhi, usually quick to respond to political developments, is yet to comment on Jayalalithaa’s conviction. Yes, DMK cadres celebrated the court order, but perhaps the party leadership sees the verdict as a double-edged sword. It has clearly raised the bar in the fight against the corruption of people holding high office. To praise the court for its stance against corruption could backfire since a special court is set to frame charges in the 2G case against Karunanidhi’s daughter, Kanimozhi, and wife, Dayalu Ammal, on October 20.

In short, both the DMK and the AIADMK could get pushed into a corner if their leaders fail to get relief from the courts. Any dent to Brand Amma would hurt the electoral prospects of the AIADMK. During her absence from the helm of government, the brand may lose its sheen. If higher courts endorse her conviction, Jayalalithaa would find it hard to convince voters that she is innocent. If the AIADMK’s support base crumbles, the voters may not necessarily flock to the DMK. In fact, the social constituencies of the AIADMK and the BJP overlap.

The third front in Tamil Nadu comprises the DMDK, the BJP, the MDMK, the PMK and a few other small outfits, which together mopped up over 18 per cent of the votes and two seats in the Lok Sabha election. Vijayakanth led the front but votes were sought in the name of and for Narendra Modi. He got to be the face of the campaign because the BJP lacks a leader with a pan-Tamil Nadu appeal.

If the AIADMK and the DMK flag, the political space could open up and the third front, if it stays intact, could be the beneficiary. With the Dravidian parties bartering ideology for power, the BJP has more acceptance in the state than ever before. The consensus in the state, manufactured and endorsed by political parties and mainstream cinema, is that governance has to be a capital-driven activity, untainted by ideology, and only the surplus needs to be distributed among citizens in the form of freebies.

Issues of social and economic equality, championed by the Dravidian movement, are now confined to the margins. The leader, an authoritarian figure who is also the deliverer, has replaced ideology as the driving force of politics. Jayalalithaa — and Modi — are representative of such leaders.

The BJP, however, is short of charismatic leaders in the state. None of the state leaders is known outside their turf. In the past, the BJP, like the Congress, had sought to ally with the Dravidian majors rather than build its own platform. Will it change tack now?

amrith.lal@expressindia.com