Kenya at risk of hunger due to climate change

Kenya is likely to suffer grave food shortages arising from the effects of climate change.

A new study by the Jesuit Hakimani Centre (JHC) and the Catholic Agency for Overseas Development (CAFOD) entitled 'Climate Change & Food Security: Predictions from the Future' found that a majority of small scale farmers in the country have experienced crop failures, production declines and livestock deaths mainly due to plant diseases and erratic weather patterns.

"If we do nothing, then we will face a catastrophe in future and lack enough to feed the nation," noted Dr Elias Mokua, Executive Director of JHC and Principal Researcher of the study.

READ: Education, technology the keys to ending food insecurity, say experts

Aside from the looming threat of climate change, the study found that agricultural land sizes are also decreasing in the country as a result of population growth and booming infrastructural developments from the real estate sector.

"Even though my land is fertile, I want to stop planting vegetables here and begin building houses as their demand is high. This will bring more money," says Sam Kariuki, a resident of Kiambu County.

His views echo that of many Kenyans from high potential agricultural areas who were interviewed in the study. In a bid to address this challenge, some development experts have proposed that county governments ask families to live in storied houses so as to free land for agriculture.

Out of the twenty five counties that participated in the study, Kericho, Kiambu and Kisii had the highest number of respondents (at 57.5, 55.7 and 52.3 per cent respectively) who were in agreement with the idea. West Pokot, Isiolo and Migori had the lowest scores at 18.5, 16.7 and 11.1 per cent respectively.

To further reduce pressure on agricultural land, it has been recommended that the government should set aside land for public cemeteries and prohibit families from burying the dead in their homesteads. Implementing such a policy will likely be an uphill task as a whopping 78 per cent of Kenyans interviewed opposed the idea.

The study also cited the emerging dominance of large scale farmers as another threat to food security in the country.

"These people have the financial resources and expertise that allow them to easily control markets at the expense of small scale farmers, who are the majority in the country," Dr Mokua explained.

By producing in mass, large scale farmers enjoy the economies of scale which allow them to reduce the prices of their produce in the market. In addition, large scale farmers are more likely to have high yields that suit market demands since they can afford to get necessary farm inputs and technologies at competitive prices.

This serves to further increase the appeal and demand for their products.

As this happens, small holder farmers whose cost of production is high, lose market or end up selling at a loss to make ends meet. Without the cash, the small scale farmers whose yields are already compromised by climate change effects - such as drought or floods - lack resources to buy food and adequately fend for their families.

“That’s why policies need to be enacted that will protect these farmers from the market forces,” said Dr Mokua.

By working in groups and having a common voice, small scale farmers can be dominant players in the agricultural market. Unfortunately, the study found that few famers are members of co-operative unions. It further stated that existing co-operative unions exhibit serious institutional challenges that prompt farmers to shun them.

To boost their agricultural yields, the study also called for enhanced capacity development and provision of subsidised farm inputs - such as fertilisers and seeds – to small scale farmers.

This would require an increase in budgetary allocation to the agricultural sector, which is currently at a low of 4 per cent against the 2003 Maputo declaration target of 10 per cent.