Drought hits Lake Tahoe, drying up Truckee River

The summer of 2014 ends up just like it started. Dry.

Anytime now, Lake Tahoe will drop so low no water will flow from the alpine jewel into the Truckee River.

Already, the river flowing through the northern Nevada metro area of Reno and Sparks is slowed to a trickle. Sun-bleached boulders protrude from sluggish waters like rounded bones.

It's drought, now three years in duration. And while no one can say how long it will last, the event has already had a widespread impact across Nevada, withering agricultural fields, stressing livestock and wildlife and producing dangerous conditions fueling wildfires like the one that recently layered Reno's skies in choking clouds of smoke.

For now, at least, water flows from taps as normal, nourishes lawns as normal. But the situation is as serious as anything seen since 1994, the last time drought caused Lake Tahoe to dip below its natural rim so early in the year and the last time Reno's primary water supplier was forced to tap reserve supplies stored in the Truckee River's upstream reservoirs.

"We haven't seen this for 20 years. We're extremely dry," said Chad Blanchard, federal water master. "The river will basically dry up below Lake Tahoe about the end of this month."

In late July, the Truckee Meadows Water Authority exhausted normal water supplies as the flow from Boca Reservoir was cut off. An unusually long stretch of monsoonal storms in August offered some relief, but river flows continued to diminish as the authority first turned to drought reserves stored in Stampede Reservoir. Shortly after Labor Day, it began draining water from Donner Lake, as well.

Customers cut water use

On July 28, the utility turned to its 93,000 residential and commercial customers and asked them to help out by reducing outdoor water use by 10% – an action officials said would allow them to avoid having to tap the area's largest drought reserve at Independence Lake.

Folks rose to the occasion, cutting water use by 10% as asked and saving about 1,150 acre-feet of water, or enough to serve about 2,500 homes for a year.

Nobody really complained, though some customers suggested the utility was not going far enough. There was even a suggestion by someone, immediately rejected, that it use drones to patrol for water wasters from the air.

"When we asked for help, the customers responded," said Mark Foree, general manager for the water authority.

While the need to use drought reserves marks an unfortunate milestone of sorts, Foree points out only a small portion has been tapped thus far. By late October, he expects the utility will use about 5,000 acre-feet of its drought reserves, or about 18%. That water should be replaced during the coming winter even if it is an under-performer.

What if the drought continues?

And that's the big question, of course. What happens if the winter of 2014-15 produces another poor winter snowpack like the last three in a row?

"If we were to have another poor winter we would likely have to use drought reserves again and it could be sooner than we did this summer," Foree said, adding that another year with a winter as dry as the last three would be decidedly significant.

"I don't think there has been four years as bad as the last three we've seen," he said.

The utility has plans in place to withstand a drought as long as the last major one to hit the region from 1987 to 1994, with an extra year thrown in. That span did include one average and one big winter mixed among the dry ones.

"That's what we plan for. That's the worst of the worst that we've had," said John Erwin, the utility's natural resource manager.

Some are concerned there could be worse to come, including Steve Bradhurst, a former Washoe County commissioner and former director of the county Department of Water Resources. Bradhurst is executive director of the Central Nevada Regional Water Authority, which is comprised of eight counties containing 65% of the state's land mass.

Last April, Bradhurst warned a legislative subcommittee that Nevada is on the cusp of a water supply crisis brought on by explosive population growth, limited water supplies and an emerging threat associated with extended drought and a warming climate.

Parts of the Great Basin have faced drought conditions longer than three years and the Colorado River Basin, which provides Las Vegas with water, has experienced the driest 14 years in 100 years of recordkeeping, Bradhurst said.

There's no reason not to suspect the three-year drought now affecting Western Nevada and the Sierra might not be the beginning of a longer event, Bradhurst said.

"I would be concerned this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to drought," Bradhurst said. "I hope our drought plan is not tested severely. We've really got our fingers crossed Mother Nature is going to give us some moisture. If that doesn't occur, we're going to have some problems no matter how much reserves we have in the mountains.

"I would be taking a look at dusting off that drought plan," Bradhurst said.

The coming winter

Of the three dry winters, the last was the worst. On April 1, when the snowpack is typically at its peak, it measured only 34% of normal in the Truckee River Basin.

That situation has been worsened by a trend that saw the first eight months of 2014 the warmest on record in Western Nevada and across California. In the Sierra, mean temperatures were about 4 degrees above normal for each month compared to previous years dating back decades. The previous warmest year was exceeded by about 1 degree, said Kelly Redmond of the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno.

"Warmer temperatures don't help anything when it comes to drought. It just speeds up the loss of water," Redmond said.

With Lake Tahoe and its other reservoirs, the Truckee River system is in far better shape than many places to weather extended drought, Redmond notes.

Still, Redmond said, much attention is focused on the coming winter and the need for sustained snow to help reverse the situation and refill diminished reservoirs.

"The clear thing is that it's going to take some wet winters, probably more than one, but one good one can get you a lot of mileage," Redmond said. "We're hoping to at least get an average winter."

What kind of winter is coming is unknown. A developing El Niño – characterized by warm ocean temperatures in the east Pacific – is still expected but appears to be weak or moderate in strength at best. Strong El Niños can, but don't necessarily, improve the storm track for the Central Sierra. Another unknown is the presence of unusual warmer-than-normal waters in the north Pacific that could affect the coming winter in some way, Redmond said.

Bottom line, another dry winter is the last thing the region needs.

"We just hope this doesn't deteriorate any further because we've used up all the wiggle room," Redmond said.