With BJP deciding to part ways with Shiv Sena, it is a make or break battle for Sena president Uddhav Thackeray.
"This is a make or break situation for Sena. Maharashtra is important for BJP but it's a national party unlike Sena which has everything at stake. For Uddhav, it's sink or swim," said a former Sena MP, adding that Uddhav's leadership was also at stake.
What was Sena's final offer?
148. "This is trial by fire for Sena and if we come up trumps, it will be a golden opportunity," said a source, adding that Uddhav would be able to establish that his leadership had come into its own. He added that BJP had refused to agree on a seat-sharing pact despite Sena whittling down its earlier stance of contesting 150 seats and scaling it down to 148.
"We conceded over 21 seats vis-a-vis our 2009 tally. What more can a political party do?" he asked claiming that BJP and NCP were inching closer.
Sena is also upset at BJP attributing Lok Sabha poll success to Modi wave and discounting Sena's popular base.
BJP was trying to shed its underdog status and edge out Sena, which has a broader socio-political base. Sena, sources claimed, could tap into the perceived disillusionment against the Modi regime.
In how many seats are Gujarati votes crucial?
21 seats in Mumbai. "The percentage of non-Maharashtrian voters who are BJP supporters has grown in traditional Sena strongholds like Parel, Girgaon and Dadar. The anti-Gujarati editorials in Sena organ Saamna has alienated a section of the community which may like to vote us out," he said, adding that Gujarati votes could be decisive in 21 of the 36 seats in Mumbai. The implications of the split may also be felt in the saffron-ruled BMC.
Even before the edit controversy, Modi is said to have ticked off a senior Sena leader during the Lok Sabha campaign.
What do Shiv Sena bank on?
"This is a party of Marathi manoos. People will stand by us. They will remember Balasaheb's work with gratitude," said Sena's longest serving MP and Thackeray Sr's former bodyguard, Mohan Rawle, adding that since these were the first assembly polls after the Sena supremo's death, there would be a "sympathy wave" for Uddhav.
"BJP had an underhand deal with NCP. Sena will not be affected; people know the kind of dirty politics BJP played despite we conceding ground," said Amravati MP Anandrao Adsul.
That the BJP is on the verge of cornering the four smaller parties in the alliance—farmer leader Raju Shetti, Mahadeo Jankar, Maratha leader Vinayak Mete and Dalit leader Ramdas Athavale—may add to Sena's woes.
The icing on the cake for Uddhav in the Lok Sabha victory was the near electoral decimation of Raj Thackeray's MNS, which lost its security deposit in all 10 LS constituencies it contested. But, there may be political realignments after Sena and BJP split.
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