Maharashtra’s regional vote

The Swing: The NCP suffered because of the desertion of leaders such as Babanrao Pachpute and Vijaykumar Gavit; the Congress has faced a gradual erosion of its tribal vote. The MNS bastion of Nashik has shown signs of crumbling.

Marathwada
47 assembly seats  

The dust bowl, once part of Hyderabad princely state, consists of Nanded, Hingoli, Parbhani, Beed, Latur, Osmanabad, Jalna and Aurangabad. One of the state’s least developed regions, it suffers frequent droughts and power cuts, despite recent industrial progress.

The Swing: The participation of its workers in the struggle against the Nizam’s dominion had seen the Congress entrenching itself, helped also by the Dalit population, while the NCP grew on the backing of the Marathas. In the past few years, dynamics have changed with many Maratha organisations moving away from the NCP. The absence of a leader of Vilasrao Deshmukh’s stature is hurting the Congress.

Vidarbha
62 assembly seats 

The region is known for its cotton production and a demand for statehood. It consists of Buldhana, Akola, Amravati, Washim, Wardha, Nagpur, Bhandara, Gondiya, Gadchiroli, Chandrapur and Yavatmal. The region is described by many as representative of flawed agricultural and irrigation policies. It has witnessed the highest number of farmer suicides in Maharashtra, and houses some of the state’s most controversial irrigation projects.

Swing: The Congress’s traditional dominance suffered huge setbacks this year and is set to be tested once again. The BJP, which supports a separate Vidarbha state, is looking to be the major gainer.

Western Maharashtra
58 assembly seats     

The grain bowl of Maharashtra consists of Kolhapur, Sangli, Satara, Solapur and Pune. Most of the ste’s chief ministers have come from this region, a strong base of the politically most dominant community, the Marathas.

Swing: The NCP, until recently the dominant force in the region, has been facing tough competition from Raju Shetti’s Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana, which has joined hands with the Shiv Sena-BJP.

Mumbai
36 assembly seats

The country’s economic capital has a scattering of an urban middle class and a mercantile population.

Swing: The Congress had managed to make major gains in 2009 thanks to the emergence of the MNS which cut into the votes of the Shiv Sena-BJP candidates. The lukewarm response to the MNS in the Lok Sabha polls, however, has thrown the field wide open. The presence of new entrants such as the Hyderbabad-based Owaisi brothers could affect the Congress’s Muslim vote bank.

Konkan
38 assembly seats

Bordering Mumbai, it is one of the most rapidly expanding areas of the country and has seen a large influx of migrants who have set up base here due to rising land prices in Mumbai. It consists of the districts of Thane, Palghar, Raigad, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg.

Swing: Konkan has always been a stronghold of the Shiv Sena. The loss of support for Narayan Rane and the exit of regional leaders from the NCP leaves the Congress-NCP facing a challenge.