Indonesia's tin export "trickle" to go on until October - assn

Reuters

* Indonesia's 2014 tin exports seen at 80,000 T, 72,000 T in 2015

* London tin stocks set to fall below 8,000 tonnes, bolster prices

* Government revising Nov export rule changes - tin association

By Michael Taylor

JAKARTA, Sept 15 (Reuters) - A self-imposed slowdown in tin ingot shipments from Indonesia will continue until at least next month, an industry group in the world's top exporter said on Monday, with total exports forecast to slip around 13 percent this year.

Indonesia's refined tin exports were expected to fall to about 80,000 tonnes this year and 72,000 tonnes in 2015, Jabin Sufianto, president of the Indonesian Association of Tin Exporters (AETI) told Reuters.

Any fall in tin exports from Indonesia could potentially be positive for London benchmark prices, which hit a 13-month low of $20,875 a tonne last week. Tin was last at $21,200.

Weak global economic growth has hurt global tin prices this year and AETI members agreed to a slowdown in domestic trades in late August in an effort to bolster prices.

"I wouldn't say there will be zero trades because producers need cash flow - probably limited trades until we see good prices for us," said Sufianto, whose group was established in May and includes 18 out of the 22 tin smelters registered to sell on the on the country's sole physical trading platform.

"There will be exports but probably a trickle," he added. "Until the end of the month and then we will review it."

For the past year Indonesia has required all ingot shipments to trade via the Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) before being exported, which led to a fall in exports.

Although AETI does not include Indonesia's biggest tin miner PT Timah, a company spokesman said on Monday that the company currently imposes restrictions on trades at prices below $23,000 a tonne, depending on the situation.

Indonesia exported 91,612.75 tonnes of the solder material in 2013, according to trade ministry data, with 52,711.88 tonnes shipped from January to August. Exports in August fell 53 percent to 3,595 tonnes.

"Let's see what happens when the LME (London Metal Exchange) stocks get below 8,000 tonnes," said Sufianto, who is an official at integrated tin firm PT Eunindo Usaha Mandiri. "At 8,000 they will start panicking."

London tin stocks are currently 9,915 tonnes.

TIN LOOPHOLES

While tin exporters associated with AETI have agreed the export slowdown, some companies have looked to bypass rules introduced last year for trading in ingot by increasing exports of non-ingot tin forms, such as tin alloy or tin wire.

Non-ingot tin exports are 18,000 tonnes for the year-to-date, making up about a third of exports, compared with about 3 percent in previous years, Sufianto said.

Customs, navy and police have also increased checks on tin shipments to ensure they are both correctly labeled and that production quotas given by miners match exports.

In a further effort to close any export loopholes, the government announced plans to distinctly categorise exporters of pure ingot, solder, pure non ingot and tin alloy from Nov. 1, which will force integrated tin firms to create separate subsidiaries and register for separate licenses.

The November changes, which also require downstream buyers of ingot to pay a VAT charge, are again being revised by the trade ministry after industry objections, Sufianto said.

Trade ministry officials could not be immediately reached for comment on Monday.

Although tin ore stocks are currently low in the top tin-producing region Bangka Belitung, said Sufianto, ICDX ingot inventories are 3,500 tonnes, up from the 1,500 tonnes average. (Reporting by Michael Taylor; Editing by Richard Pullin)