This was published 9 years ago
Why North Melbourne and Port Adelaide could win on semi-final weekend, but almost certainly won't
Former federal treasurer Wayne Swan is a keen football follower, and he shrewdly believed that the best way to fiscal security during the Global Financial Crisis was to place a couple of hundred million bucks each year onto the qualifying final losers on the second weekend of September. Who needs surplus when you have the semis!
This is, of course, false (I think), but as
far as sports betting goes, week two of the finals is the perfect storm.
By definition, it throws up two last-start winners against two last-start losers, and if you're perceptive you may have noticed that footy fans and pundits are a rather fickle and reactive lot who have the tendency to become goldfish on a weekly basis.
Essendon captain Jobe Watson reacts after North Melbourne's Drew Petrie kicked what turned out to be a match-winning goal in the elimination final on Saturday.Credit: Getty Images
While writing this story I received an email that someone had placed $50,000 with corporate bookmaker Sportingbet on Geelong and Fremantle to salute against North Melbourne and Port Adelaide respectively - just as 26 of 28 higher-ranked sides have done in the 14 completed years of this finals format.
That hasn't of course stopped some from talking up the prospects of the Kangaroos and Power. And there are several at least superficially good reasons to feel that either could be the exception to the rule.
The most compelling of those reasons are injuries, which can cruel even the best of teams in September.
The Cats will in all likelihood be forced to make do with Mark Blicavs as their primary ruckman, a situation it has seemed keen to avoid but which has become a necessity with the injuries to Nathan Vardy, Dawson Simpson, and now Hamish McIntosh. The significant clouds over the fitness of Allen Christensen and Steve Johnson, and the clear discomfort in which Steven Motlop played against Hawthorn is further fodder for the doubters.
The Tigers won just their second final in 20 years against Carlton in 2001.Credit: Vince Cagliuri
Likewise, the Dockers are hampered, with Hayden Ballantyne set to sit out with a broken jaw, and and key defenders Luke McPharlin and Michael Johnson in mothballs for the rest of the season. It was, after all, injuries that undid the last team to make a straight sets exit - when West Coast sans the handy pair of Chris Judd and Ben Cousins lost to Collingwood on a Friday night seven seasons ago. The Eagles still persisted for four quarters that night, only going down in extra time.
As far as the prospects of elimination final winners go however, the 2014 pair is only middle-of-the-road. While Port Adelaide was irresistible against Richmond on Sunday, North Melbourne could only manage slightly more than an hour of quality football against Essendon. And despite the fact that both were facing modern powerhouses on their home grounds, neither Geelong (against Hawthorn) nor Fremantle (against Sydney) was thrashed. Only a fortnight ago the Dockers had the better of Port at Patersons Stadium, while a month earlier the Cats held North at arm's length at Etihad.
Much more battered teams have defied a lack of form in the qualifying final to win the next week.
In 2000 and 2007, the Kangaroos rebounded from triple-figure canings and progressed to week three, in both years overcoming much-fancied Hawthorn.
In 2002, Adelaide won through despite being made to relinquish its rightful home ground advantage against Melbourne - a result of the AFL's contractual impasse with the MCG - also having to stare down the barrel of a 29-point deficit in the third quarter.
The Demons aren't the only elimination final winner to be mowed down despite a sizeable lead in the semi, the same thing happened to Adelaide (v Collingwood) in 2009, Sydney (v Western Bulldogs) in 2010, Fremantle (v Adelaide) in 2012, and West Coast (v Collingwood) 2012.
Carlton (2001) and Sydney (2004) were all the rage against Richmond and St Kilda respectively, but the higher-placed teams lived to fight another day. The '08 Saints, '12 Pies and '09 and '10 Dogs had all been beaten by their semi-final opponents in the final month of the home-and-away season, yet all reversed those results on semi-final weekend, and ensured that the top-four teams were the last four standing in September.
They almost invariably are. Just ask Wayne Swan.