Baseline Buzz: Why Woz has a shot

NEW YORK -- The bathing suit buddies meet on a tennis court Sunday afternoon for the third time in 30 days.

Serena Williams and Caroline Wozniacki, fast friends, have probably exceeded that number off the court. They were hanging out in Miami -- post-Rory McIlroy -- and sent the social media universe into a tizzy when they posed for photos with a wedding party back in June.

"Serena is a fun girl," Wozniacki said after her strange semifinal match with Peng Shuai, which saw the struggling Chinese player forced to retire. "Always makes me laugh and makes everyone around her laugh. Definitely a very inspiring person to be around."

So what to make of this US Open women's final?

History suggests Serena will win this title for the sixth time -- and her third in a row. That hasn't happened since Chrissie Evert won four straight from 1975-78.

Serena has an 8-1 head-to-head advantage, but the matches earlier this summer in Montreal and Cincinnati both went the distance. It was a 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 quarterfinal win for Serena in Canada, followed eight days later by a 2-6, 6-2, 6-4 Serena win in the Cincinnati semifinals. Note that in both matches Wozniacki won the first set, then lost the next two.

When the draw came out here, the two found themselves looking into the future.

"It was like, 'Oh, it would be much better to play each other in the final than earlier on,'" Serena said. "I'm just glad we weren't on the same side of the draw.

"Of course we were like, 'That would be great if we could see each other in the final because we hadn't had the greatest Grand Slam year.'"

And here they are. Our Baseline Buzzers, ESPN.com tennis editor Matt Wilansky and senior writer Greg Garber, break it down.

Greg Garber: It's almost like those awkward Venus-Serena matches through the years. The play was usually stilted, with both players feeling the emotions of playing someone they loved and grew up with. My sense of it is that Serena might have been taking it easy on Wozniacki in those first sets, then turned on the jets. I don't think she'll give her this one, even if it would be her first Grand Slam singles title. Is it possible that the Great Dane is the best women's player never to win a Slam?

Matt Wilansky: What the record book won't tell you is that Wozniacki has the most titles (22) in the history of the game without a Grand Slam championship, a daunting distinction she lifted from our colleague Pam Shriver in Istanbul earlier this season. Though to be fair to Shriver, she does have 21 doubles titles in tennis' holy grail of tournaments, which is tied for second most all time. It should also be noted that Woz is one of three players who have been ranked No. 1 in the world without a major title. So survey says ... yes, no one has put together a greater résumé without a slice of Slam history than Wozniacki. But based on what we've seen this week, that could all change come Sunday evening.

Greg Garber: Or not. Since that embarrassing exit at Wimbledon when she banged four double faults playing doubles with sister Venus, Serena has been en fuego, winning 18 of 19 matches and two titles. The other overlooked thing: She's won 20 straight matches in this tournament. The best on the men's side? Rafael Nadal, with seven, but he's not even playing here this year.

Matt Wilansky: Nor will he be playing for a while, according to some reports. For the record, this is the second Open in the past three years Rafa has missed, which brings up an interesting point: For years, we weren't sure where Serena's priorities stood. I think she was ambivalent in her career -- tennis, entrepreneur, fun and games. She missed eight Slams until 2011, but since then, she has played 14 straight majors (and won four), which validates how badly she wants to win. My question to you, sir: All things being equal, what does Woz need to do to pull off what would be a remarkable upset?

Greg Garber: Look at you, asking the pertinent question. I would say anything that Wozniacki does or doesn't do won't affect this match as much as what Serena herself does (or doesn't) do. As we've seen in recent years, it's all about Serena. When she comes to play, she wrecks people -- even the best of her contemporaries. When she doesn't ... even someone like Virginie Razzano, of all people, can knock her out of, say, the 2012 French Open. Here's our analyst (and Fed Cup captain) Mary Joe Fernandez: "In my mind, this match is in Serena's hands. She has the bigger serve and she has more weapons, so she'll be controlling the points." What do you think Woz needs to do?

Matt Wilansky: Pray? Hope that Serena gets a hangnail on her serving hand? But seriously, Mary Joe also brought up this point: "This is the first major of the year for Serena, and nerves could be a factor. Remember she's trying to catch Chris and Martina [with 18 majors]. She's chasing history." One thing we have to remember as well is that Wozniacki has firepower in her game, which she needs to leverage. In other words, she's gotta go for the lines.

Greg Garber: I think she will. While playing in these major finals is old news for Serena, who has a 17-4 record in those tilts, this is only Wozniacki's second Slam final -- and the first in five years. She got deconstructed by Kim Clijsters but says she's a much different player now. Good for her. Coming out of the French Open, Woz was ranked No. 27 in the WTA's Road to Singapore. Now she'll be either No. 5 or No. 9. Rory is so in the rearview mirror.

Matt Wilansky: So let's get this straight: Since Rory, Woz won her first title of the year, trained for a marathon and reached the US Open final. Who needs boys anyway? Of concern, though: Woz has spent 10 hours, 2 minutes hours on court so far, about four hours more than Serena. But considering her truncated semifinal, Woz should be fresh. No matter how this one plays out, I think we have a pretty good storyline on our hands.