Islamic State becoming more entrenched in Syria

BAGHDAD — In the Syrian city of Raqqah on the banks of the Euphrates River, Islamic State militants are busy building a capital fit for their followers.

The group has banned music and smoking, imposed a curriculum in schools and made girls as young as six cover up.

Even as it recruits thousands into its forces and celebrates victories by parading the heads of its enemies, the group has established an elaborate governing system that oversees every aspect of people’s lives. It is a reflection of how entrenched the group has become in Syria and how difficult it will be to uproot it from the country where it was able to assemble and train enough forces to push into Iraq in June.

United States air strikes alone will not do it and the international community does not have any other options to fall back on, said Mr Kamran Bokhari, vice-president for the Middle East at Texas-based consulting firm Stratfor.

“Who’s the other force that’s going to fight the Islamic State on the ground?” said Mr Bokhari. “Its presence in Iraq is based on its strategic depth in Syria and to truly eliminate the threat from Iraq, you have to weaken it in Syria.”

US President Barack Obama ordered air strikes this month against the Islamist militants in Iraq, though he has not approved action against the group in Syria.

US air strikes in Syria against the Islamic State would be much more complicated than in Iraq, where battle lines are more clearly drawn. The picture in Syria is more complex, with a host of military players operating in close proximity to one another, including the Islamic State group, the Al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, Western-backed rebels against Syrian President Bashar Assad and pro-government forces.

The Islamic State, which evolved from the Al Qaeda in Iraq, appeared in Syria two years after an anti-Assad uprising began in 2011, emerging in April last year following its break from the Nusra Front.

Since the beginning of the year, the group has been engaged in a war of attrition with Western-backed rebels, overwhelming their outposts one by one through force and intimidation. Hundreds have been killed in the fighting, which has detracted from the rebellion’s main goal of toppling Mr Assad.

The group burst into global consciousness in June when its fighters seized Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, after moving from their base in Syria. The Iraqi army melted away and the group declared a Caliphate that erased borders and imposed a Taliban-like rule over a large swathe of territory.

Not everyone was surprised by the group’s success, given that it is made up of many Iraqi military officers who have augmented traditional military skills with terrorist techniques refined though years of fighting US troops, while also having deep local knowledge and contacts.

EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT

By some estimates, the Islamic State now occupies up to 35 per cent of Syria or about a third of the country. It has consolidated its hold over an impressive stretch of territory from its westernmost end on the outskirts of the city of Aleppo, across northern Syria and most of the east. It spreads into most of the Sunni-dominated areas of northern and western Iraq, right up to the edges of Baghdad.

The Islamic State’s declared capital is Raqqa, a north-eastern Syrian city with a population of 500,000. Foreign fighters, some with their families, have flocked there from all over the world. Although it has always been a conservative city with a strong tribal presence, Raqqa was once a diverse, thriving commercial centre.

Today, it is patrolled 24 hours a day by vice-squads known as the Hisba — armed fighters in long robes who ensure that their strict interpretation of Islam is observed. Mr Mohammad, a Raqqah resident who declined to give his full name because of fear of reprisals, said people are unhappy with the strict social codes imposed by the Islamic State. “People yearn for the pre-war days,” he said. “But they’re too intimidated to speak out.”

The Islamic State has also quietly built an effective management structure of mostly middle-aged Iraqis, including many military officers under Saddam Hussein, overseeing departments of finance, arms, local governance, military operations and recruitment.The group is, in effect, a hybrid of terrorists and an army, led by the self-declared leader of all Muslims, Abu Bakr Baghdadi.

His deputies include 12 walis, or local rulers, a three-man war Cabinet and eight others who manage portfolios such as finance, prisoners and recruitment. Its operations are carried out by a network of regional commanders who have their own subordinates and a degree of autonomy, but they have set “drop times” when they open a shared network to coordinate.

For example, the Islamic State responded to US air strikes on its positions in Iraq by distributing a professionally produced video recently of the beheading of US journalist James Foley. “In the terrorism game, these guys are at the centre of a near-perfect storm of factors,” a US official said.

Mr Hassan Abu Hanieh, a Jordanian expert on Islamist groups, said that while Mr Baghdadi had relied mostly on Iraqis, he had left areas such as religious guidance, recruitment and media production to foreigners.

Many of them, such as the head of the Islamic State’s media department, are Saudis. This is at least partly to make the group appear globalised, Mr Abu Hanieh said. “They want to appeal to international jihadists so that they come and join the battle.”

Some non-Iraqis have risen to prominence. Mr Baghdadi’s chief spokesman is Syrian. And one group of foreign fighters is led by an ethnic Chechen who goes by the name of Mr Omar Shishani.

With money from the oil fields which it controls in Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State has managed to attract recruits. More than 6,300, mostly Syrian fighters, joined the group last month, said the United Kingdom-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which has been documenting the war through a network of activists. Syrian fighters get US$400 (S$498) a month, plus US$50 for each child and US$100 for each wife. Foreign fighters receive an additional US$400 a month, it said.

The next step for the Islamic State will be to consolidate its gains and engage in activity that is going to keep the other side off balance, such as anti-Shia bombings in Iraq, said Mr Bokhari. It also will seek to exploit the differences among rebels fighting Mr Assad’s forces, he added. AGENCIES