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South Africa's leading business cycle indicator up 0.5% m/m in June 2014 [IntelliNews - Weekly Reports](IntelliNews - Weekly Reports Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) said its composite leading business cycle indicator, a method used to forecast turning points in the business cycle, increased by 0.5% m/m in June after edging up by a revised 0.3% m/m in May. The indicator, which gathers data such as vehicle sales, job advertisements, business confidence, manufacturing orders and money supply to estimate the economic outlook, stood at 100.1, by 0.2% higher compared to June 2013. This was its first y/y increase in eight months and came after a 1.2% y/y fall in May. The central bank said that 6 of the indicator's 10 component time series that were available for June improved and 4 worsened. The largest positive contributions came from a rise in the volume of manufacturing orders and an increase in the average hours worked in the manufacturing sector. On the opposite, the main negative contributors were a decrease in the number of residential building plans passed, followed by a deceleration in the y/y percentage change in job advertisement space. SARB's composite coincident business cycle indicator, which provides information about the current state of the economy, fell 0.6% m/m, but improved by 0.3% y/y in May. The composite lagging business cycle indicator decreased by 1.0% m/m and by 0.1% y/y in May. Lagging indicators usually change after the economy as a whole does with the typical lag being several quarters. (c) 2014 Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings LLC Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info). |