Story lines for U.S. Open, tennis' Rorschach test

The U.S. Open is the sport's Rorschach test, the psychology tool used to assess personalities. A blot of brassy, chaotic commercialism splashed out on egalitarian hardcourts, where perception is everything.

Some see anarchy. Some see opportunity. The ultimate test in tennis is what you make it.

"It's tough, it's long, it's so stinking windy it will test your patience to a level that you can't imagine," five-time champion Serena Williams says.

Situated at the cusp of summer and fall, the last Grand Slam tournament of the season straddles beginning and end. It can salvage a season, baptize it as one to remember or shut the door on disappointment.

It is democracy and dictatorship. The Open was the first major to award equal prize money, but there is nothing classless about this year's payout: Singles winners will take home a kingly ransom of $3 million apiece.

Held in the world's entertainment and financial sweet spot of New York City, it is unabashedly corporate and unrelentingly showtime. Stars soar in the electric night skies of Arthur Ashe Stadium. They just as easily drown in the anonymity of the constant din.

One impression is unambiguous: To emerge victorious means surviving a mix of pressure, energy and funky weather, a true litmus test of mental and physical fortitude. Make it there, and, well ...

"It's New York City, baby," says Patrick McEnroe, who grew up in nearby Douglaston, Queens. "Big, brash and bold."

This year will be no different. However you see it, here are the major stories heading into Flushing Meadows, where over the next fortnight perception can become reality but always remains in the eye of the beholder.

A new guard

After years of fits and starts, the New Generation has arrived. On the ATP and WTA tours, never has experience or physical maturity been more important. But a crop of young, fearless, hungry players is challenging seasoned veterans for supremacy.

Six months into the season, for instance, the WTA had produced 11 first-time tournament winners, more than in all of 2013, when there were eight.

The young standouts include Simona Halep, 22, and Eugenie Bouchard, 20. Both pushed consistently deep in the majors, with Halep losing a close French Open final to Maria Sharapova and Bouchard finishing runner-up to Petra Kvitova at Wimbledon.

Facile on all surfaces, 5-6 Halep has used her superior movement and compact, clever shotmaking to push to No. 2 in the world rankings. She returns to New York ready to challenge for the title.

Bouchard is the only player to reach the semifinals of the first three majors in 2014. Ranked No. 59 when the Open began a year ago, the no-nonsense Montreal native rode her cool head and time-robbing game into the top 10, where after Wimbledon she became the highest-ranking Canadian in history at No. 7.

There are others knocking on the door: Spain's flat-hitting Garbine Muguruza, 20, who upset Williams at the French Open; the USA's Sloane Stephens, 21, who reached the fourth round or better in six consecutive majors before a first-round exit at Wimbledon; and 19-year-old American Madison Keys, who won her first title at Eastbourne and has the power game to intimidate opponents.

Not to be outdone, the men have also gotten into the act. Chief among them: Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic, who both reached their first Grand Slam semifinals at Wimbledon.

Dimitrov, 23, has emerged from under the "Baby Fed" label by improving his fitness and adding grit to his game under coach Roger Rasheed. In addition to upending defending champion Andy Murray at Wimbledon and breaking into the top 10, Dimitrov — who dates Sharapova — has won titles on three different surfaces this year: at Acapulco (hard), Bucharest (clay) and Queen's Club (grass).

Raonic, who is 23 and stands 6-5, has been the more consistent performer, reaching the quarterfinals or better in seven of 10 events through Wimbledon. Behind his cannon serve, the Canadian bludgeoned his way deep into the second week of a major at the All England Club, where he fell to Roger Federer in the semifinals.

Like the women, more are on the way. Australian prodigy Bernard Tomic, 21, a 2011 Wimbledon quarterfinalist, reversed a slide by winning his second career title at Bogota in July to vault back into the top 70. Austria's Dominic Thiem, 20, owns a win this year against Australian Open champion Stan Wawrinka and has cracked the top 50. Nick Kyrgios, 19, beat Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon and reached the quarterfinals.

"I think the younger guys, we want to come on that stage," Dimitrov said. "We also want to prove to the big guys that we're around the corner."

Questions about Big Four

Can Novak Djokovic consolidate his Wimbledon win? Can Federer challenge on cement? Is Murray a worthy title threat? And what of Nadal? That final question won't get an answer here because the defending U.S. Open champ withdrew because of an injured wrist.

Switzerland's Wawrinka crashed the party by beating Nadal in Melbourne — the second major won by someone other than the Big Four in 38 Slam events — but by summer the familiar names were again clashing for major hardware. Nadal beat Djokovic to win a ninth title at Roland Garros, and Djokovic outlasted Federer for his second title at the All England Club.

2011 U.S. Open champ Djokovic has reached the New York final each of the last four years, but the 27-year-old Serb lost in 2012 to Murray and last year to Nadal. With Boris Becker at his side, the recently married and expectant father is hitting his stride.

After a subpar 2013, Federer is firmly back in the mix. With a larger racket and boyhood idol Stefan Edberg as a part-time coach, the 33-year-old Swiss reached the Australian Open semifinals and lost a five-set thriller to Djokovic at Wimbledon. Still, age and the grind of hardcourts could spell trouble: The five-time U.S. Open champ hasn't reached a final in the Big Apple since 2009. But if things break his way, Federer is again capable of nabbing an 18th major.

Murray, 27, has had a solid year after back surgery last fall, making quarterfinal showings at the Australian Open and Wimbledon and a semifinal appearance at Roland Garros. But the Scot hasn't played at the level of 2012-13, when, under the tutelage of Ivan Lendl, he reached four Grand Slam finals, winning two, including the 2012 U.S. Open, and won an Olympic gold medal.

A former U.S. Open boys champion, Murray has always felt at home in New York and should have no doubts about his ability to conquer Queens again.

Women rebounding

New York finalists the last two years, Williams and Victoria Azarenka could boom or bust.

Williams had one of her best seasons in 2013, going 78-4 with a career-high 11 titles, including her 16th and 17th major crowns in Paris and New York. But she has looked a shadow of her dominating self for much of 2014.

The 32-year-old had won four titles heading into August and maintained her grip on the top ranking, but she hits New York with plenty to salvage. Most glaringly, she failed to make it past the fourth round in three majors and suffered from periods of admitted mental exhaustion.

Her unsettled state of mind showed up during a second-round doubles match at Wimbledon, where, suffering from a viral illness, she appeared disoriented and lethargic before retiring.

Williams enters the U.S. Open as two-time defending champion for the first time, and the pressure is on. It has been 13 years since she entered all four majors in a calendar year and emerged without at least one title. That streak is on the line.

Azarenka, runner-up to Williams the last two years, can't complain of mental fatigue.

Her issue is rust — and health. A right foot injury has left her with little match play since January. In her second event since March, the 25-year-old from Belarus fell in the second round at Wimbledon.

In August she pulled out of the WTA tournament in Cincinnati with a right knee injury.

If the two-time Australian Open champion is healthy, she could be dangerous. Few players have the self-belief to challenge Williams on a big stage, but Azarenka is one of them.

Americans on the ropes

Williams and the top-ranked Bryan brothers have kept the flag flying with titles the last few years, but the USA's Grand Slam event hasn't had a male singles winner since Andy Roddick in 2003. Robby Ginepri, a semifinalist in 2005, is the last active player to go beyond the quarterfinals.

That leaves much of the burden to John Isner, the only American male ranked in the top 50 for much of 2014. Expectations are understandably muted, but 29-year-old Isner thinks a cluster of Americans such as Sam Querrey, Jack Sock and Steve Johnson can make noise.

Isner's health also is a question: He withdrew this week from the Winston-Salem Open because of a sprained left ankle.

"It's an advantage for us playing at home," said Isner, whose best result at a major was reaching the 2011 U.S. Open quarterfinals.

"We're going to have the crowd on our side, and most American players generally play better on hard court as the surface we've played the most on growing up, whereas Europeans and South Americans always play on the dirt. ... I expect a handful of or a lot of American players to play well this summer and carry that momentum into the U.S. Open."