Independents could dump ice bucket on Az Legislature

Behold, the ice bucket challenge.

No, I'm not talking about the one to benefit ALS, but the one to benefit the state of Arizona.

The bucket's in the hands of independent voters who are showing signs that they might just use it on Tuesday, upending the thing on the heads of the tea party that hopes to seize control of the Legislature.

Independents, long MIA during primary elections, have requested early ballots in record numbers this year and they're returning them in record numbers.

That could be good news for what we used to call conservative Republicans – the ones endorsed by Gov. Jan Brewer and the business community, the ones now called lefties by those on the fringes of the once-Grand Old Party.

"I believe that it helps, realistically, most of the Brewer endorsements," Garrett Archer, a Republican consultant who tracks independent voters. "She's been popular with independents. The ones in tight races could see a bump in independents that would significantly help them either catch up to or pass their opponents."

The number of independents in Arizona has been rising for several years, as people have fled the two dominant parties. Independents long ago surpassed Democrats and this spring left Republicans in their wake.

People like Surprise Mayor Sharon Wolcott, who is an independent.

"We are coming off the sidelines in record numbers," she said. "There is hope for Arizona."

People like former Senate President Leo Corbet, who served in the Legislature for two decades and was the Republican nominee for governor in 1982.

"After 50 some years as a Republican, I recently became an independent. In my mind, both parties are flawed," he said. "My experiences with the state Legislature in the last several years, prompted the change of parties. I have found that there is a lot of religion being discussed, but not much of the Judeo/Christian ethic being practiced."

Corbet has plenty of company. In all, independents now comprise 35.5 percent of the electorate while Republicans claim 34.6 percent and Democrats 29.1 percent.

Traditionally, independents sit out the primaries. In 2012, just 7 percent voted while overall turnout was 28 percent.

The times, however, they may be a changing.

Nearly three times the number of independents have requested early ballots this year as in 2012 and they are returning them at twice the rate, according to Archer's analysis.

In 2012, 40,000 Maricopa County independents voted in the primary. As of Wednesday, 33,000 independents already had voted and Archer says that number will spike on Tuesday when the polls open.

Archer is predicting that independents will account for 16 to 18 percent of the vote in Maricopa County's Republican primary – with a large number of those being independents who are first-time voters or have not voted in a GOP primary since at least 2010, when he began tracking independents.

"I think that if races are close, if Republicans are split on somebody, then the independents could substantially impact the race," he said.

Here are the Republican races where the battle for control of the Legislature will take place on Tuesday:

-- Scottsdale/Fountain Hills. Jeff Schwartz is challenging Rep. John Kavanagh for the open Senate seat. Meanwhile, Effie Carlson and Bob Littlefield hope to defeat the tea party's Rep. Michelle Ugenti and Jay Lawrence.

--Mesa. Sen. Bob Worsley is hoping to fend off Ralph Heap, a tea party favorite. In the House, moderate Michelle Udall is facing off against Rep. Justin Olson, Rusty Bowers, Haydee Dawson and Jerry Walker.

-Mesa/Apache Junction. Taylor McArthur is facing ultraconservative Sen. David Farnsworth. Rep. Doug Coleman is facing Rep. Kelly Townsend and John Fillmore, the tea-party candidates. The fourth House candidate is Adam Stevens.

-Chandler/Ahwatukee. Rep. Jeff Dial is battling tea partier Tom Morrissey for the Senate. Rep. Bob Robson hopes to fend off tea-party challenges from Jill Norgaard and John King. The fourth House candidate is David Pheanis, who like Dial and Robson, is on the tea party's blacklist.

-Glendale/Phoenix. Bill Adams is challenging ultraconservative Rep. Carl Seel. Other candidates are Rep. Paul Boyer, his tea-party running mate Anthony Kern and Seel's running mate Thurane Aung Khin.

-Western Maricopa County/Yuma. Diane Landis is hoping to oust one of the far-right incumbents, Steve Montenegro and Darin Mitchell.

-North Phoenix. Rep. Heather Carter is facing off against two hard-right candidates, Rep. John Allen and David Burnell Smith.

-Central Phoenix. Rep. Kate Brophy McGee and Mary Hamway are facing the more conservative Shawnna Bolick.

-Pinal/Pima County. Scott Bartle is up against ultraconservative Rep. Steve Smith for the Senate. In the House race, moderate Jo Grant is battling tea-party favorites Mark Finchem and Vince Leach.

-Pinal County. Reps. Frank Pratt and T.J. Shope face a tea-party challenge from Darla Dawald and Wayne Bachmann.

-Southwestern Arizona. Susan Syfert hopes to take out one of the hard-right incumbents, David Gowan and David Stevens.

Two years and a handful of Comedy Central monologues ago, 28 percent of Arizona voters decided who would represent us in the Legislature.

The question now before us: Are you happy with their selections?