All you wanted to know about. Ebola

After the 2009-10 H1N1 flu pandemic, which claimed over 18,000 lives, it is now the turn of the Ebola virus. With over 1,700 people suspected to have been infected so far, nations across the globe are apprehensive. Since its outbreak in Guinea last December, the Ebola virus has spread to adjoining West African countries — Liberia, Nigeria, Ghana and Sierra Leone.

What is it? The disease referred to as ‘ebola hemorrhagic fever’ is caused by Ebola virus. Fruit bats and monkeys are believed to be the original carriers of the virus; however, the carriers are supposedly unaffected by the organism. The virus spreads through the blood or body fluids of the carrier. It can also spread to any human who comes into contact with the blood or body fluids of the infected person. One can contract the virus by just wearing the clothes worn by an infected person.

But Ebola is not a wholly unknown quantity; it was first identified in Sudan as early as 1976. In 2007, there was a minor outbreak of Ebola in Congo and Uganda.

Its symptoms are quite similar to that of other flus — fatigue, fever, headaches, joint, muscle and abdominal pain. From the time one contracts the virus, it may take eight to 10 days on an average for the symptoms to become apparent. Until such time, though the infected person may not show symptoms, he still carries a very high risk of transmitting it to others.

At present there is neither a drug to cure Ebola nor vaccines to prevent contraction of the disease. Antibiotics to treat the symptoms have been the only life-line for infected patients till date. Patients are also being administered anti-coagulants to avert blood-clotting and given adequate fluids and electrolytes to prevent dehydration.

Why is it important Ebola is not just a medical phenomenon, there are implications for economies too. The healthcare spend for the impacted West African countries will increase of course. But besides this, following the outbreak of the disease, there are implications for mobility, trade and tourism. Tourism has been the first casualty; many nations across the globe have already stopped flight services and movement of people from/to these countries. This has impacted trade between West Africa countries and the rest of the world. Foreign companies are either scaling down or closing operations in these countries. Liberia’s Finance Minister Amara Konneh has pegged revenue loss on account of Ebola at $12 million for just the April-June 2014 period. Due to the spillover effect from all this, the country’s GDP growth estimate is also likely to be revised down from the earlier 5.9 per cent. Likewise, the World Bank has cut Guinea’s GDP estimate by one percentage point to 3.5 per cent.

Why should I care If you’re planning a visit to Liberia, Nigeria, Ghana or Sierra Leone, it may be best to put off the trip until effective treatments are found or the epidemic is controlled. The human impact apart, the Ebola virus can also have an impact on Indian companies which have operations in the affected regions. Investors who have exposure to the four West African countries in their portfolio either directly or through mutual funds may face an impact from closed markets and interrupted trading too.

The bottomline It is not just financial crises that have a contagion effect. Old-fashioned epidemics do too, because of the growing inter connectedness of economies through trade and tourism.

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