Answer by Jason Lancaster, editor of AccurateAutoAdvice.com, on Quora,
Maybe, but probably not.
Battery packs are expensive, aren't easy to refuel, won't work for a lot of consumers, and are likely inferior to fuel cells. While I'd expect some consumers to opt for battery-electric vehicles in the future due to their lower operating costs, my guess is that the bulk of the market will opt for more efficient gasoline or diesel, and/or fuel cell powered vehicles.
First of all, battery packs are expensive. Tesla's new "gigafactory" might be able to produce batteries for $150/kw-hr. That's 25% less than their current pricing (maybe more?), but it's still extraordinarily expensive.
For perspective, an 85kw-hr battery pack in a Tesla Model S should cost $13-$17k by 2017. That's at least twice as much as a hybrid gasoline engine (gas powertrains cost $4-8k), and it's just the battery pack. You still need an uber-efficient electric motor and drivetrain to make the car actually move.
What's more, fuel cells are expected to cost $30-$50 per kw by 2017. They'll be cost competitive with gasoline powered cars by the end of the decade, whereas battery-electrics will *never* be cost competitive with gasoline cars, at least if we're talking about up-front investment.
Basically, battery electric cars are going to be very costly for the foreseeable future. Barring some major drop in battery pack costs, cost is going to be a major disadvantage (especially as federal and state tax credits dry up).
Second, battery packs take time to charge. If you need "juice" in your electric car, you need to park at a fast charger and grab lunch. If a fast charger isn't available, you need to park and wait until tomorrow to resume your trip.
Perhaps waiting isn't a big deal to some, but consumers have come to expect fast and convenient refueling. Consumer habits and expectations aren't going to be easy to overcome.
Third, electric pickups and SUVs don't make a lot of sense. More than 50% of the new vehicles sold in the USA in 2014 so far have been trucks or SUVs. When you mount an electric battery pack in a truck or SUV:
- Batteries must be bigger in trucks and SUVs and cars, which means truck and SUV batteries cost substantially more...that's the first problem listed, only bigger
- Trucks and SUVs have serious range problems once you put a payload in them or behind them
Imagine pulling a boat behind an electric pickup and seeing your range fall from 200 miles to 60. Or putting 1000 lbs of rock in your half-charged electric truck and not being able to make it home. Etc.
Essentially, truck and SUV buyers will have even stronger reservations about battery-electric vehicles than car buyers do. That's a big obstacle.
Fourth, fuel cells look like they'll be a better option. With their fast refueling times and lower up-front costs, fuel cells are less disruptive.
- As stated above, it's projected that fuel cells will cost 1/3rd to 1/6th as much as battery packs by 2017, and there's every reason to think costs will continue to fall
- Fuel cell stacks and storage tanks are more compact than battery packs, which makes fitting them into existing vehicles much easier
- Fuel cells refill in a few minutes - 3 to 10, depending on the design of the tank and filling station
- Advances in catalysts have dramatically improved the efficiency of both fuel cell stacks and electrolysis devices...it's not unreasonable to think that solar panels can be used to generate hydrogen by day, which is then used to fill vehicles (or even power electric grids) 24/7.
NOTE: A big problem with solar power is uneven production, and hydrogen addresses that problem pretty nicely. Fuel cells + solar arrays could be the future of all energy generation, not just cars.
Fifth, gas and diesel are improving. Every time I turn around, I see someone using gasoline or diesel to get slightly better fuel economy. While many dismiss these improvements, petroleum is energy dense, the delivery and production infrastructure is built, and you can't argue with performance. From pickups to passenger cars, gasoline and diesel do what consumers expect.
Summing up, Tesla's EVs might be the vehicle of the future, but my guess is that they're a small segment of the market. They'll have the lowest operating costs, but they'll also have the highest up-front cost. When tax incentives go away, battery-electric cars will mostly be for the wealthy (which is pretty much the case now, for the record).
This question originally appeared on Quora: Is Tesla's EV the future of autos? More questions:
