Gung-ho BJP misses plain truths in Jharkhand

Hopeful to once again ride on the coattails of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP in Jharkhand does not want friends or alliance partners. Instead, the party wants an early assembly polls. Sooner the better. Leader of Opposition Arjun Munda has already called regional parties "power hungry" and blamed them for "having done more harm than good to the State."

The jarring irony, however, is that Arjun Munda would not have thrice been Chief Minister of Jharkhand thrice in the past without the support of the same regional parties, which he has now chosen to slam in the run up to the Lok Sabha polls. Jharkhand is likely to witness assembly polls in November this year.

BJP's new found confidence stems from their impressive show in the Lok Sabha election in which it won 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in the State.

A micro, assembly wise examination reveals that the BJP Lok Sabha candidates maintained a lead in the 56 Assembly constituencies. The BJP, hopeful to repeat its Lok Sabha poll performance, knows a similar performance can give them a comfortable majority in the 82-member Jharkhand assembly. But is it not easier said than done?

"The BJP is living in a fools' paradise. Conceited and arrogant, they tend to believe that they can repeat their Lok Sabha election performance in the State elections without considering the finer points. They had a strong leader in Narendra Modi with high credibility ranking in the Lok Sabha polls. People know that Narendra Modi will not become Jharkhand's Chief Minister if they vote for the BJP in the assembly polls. Unlike BJP's strong Central leadership, the team saffron is a house divided in Jharkhand," a senior Congress leader told India Today.

"Jharkhand has always given a clear verdict when it comes to Lok Sabha polls but not even once in the State elections. Besides, past records prove that both Congress and BJP have failed to repeat their Lok Sabha poll performance in the assembly polls. When BJP bagged 8 of Jharkhand's 14 Lok Sabha seats in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, it had maintained a lead in 46 assembly segments.

But the party failed to maintain its position in the assembly polls, held only a few months later, and finished with a tally of only 18 assembly seats. Finally, it was forced to back a JMM led government," the Congress leader said. By the same yardstick, BJP seats may fall short of a simple majority in the assembly election.

A senior BJP leader in Jharkhand agreed that closing the door on regional parties, especially on trusted partners like Sudesh Mahto led AJSU is a strategic blunder. "Our party's assessment for Vidhan Sabha elections seems akin to the reasoning of Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar in neighbouring Bihar. Driven by a statistical chimera; Lalu and Nitish have joined hands in Bihar. The two politicians have calculated the number of votes they polled fighting against each other and then added their numbers to arrive at a vote tally, which is larger than BJP. Similarly, Jharkhand BJP leaders are hoping that they will have a comfortable majority in the assembly polls just because party Lok Sabha candidates maintained a lead in 56 assembly seats. This is oversimplification. In real election, a host of intangible factors like strong leadership comes into play. People vote according to their perception and not because of their past preferences," agreed a BJP insider.

Incidentally, AJSU President Sudesh Mahto, who was instrumental in the formation of BJP led governments after 2005 and 2009 assembly polls, has proved himself a worthy friends, as he preferred to stay in opposition instead of joining any other government, which did not have BJP as a constituent.

BJP central leadership's reluctance in projecting a Chief Ministerial face for the State Assembly election is also being viewed as party's silent acknowledgement of the lack of leadership consensus that plagues party's Jharkhand unit. "Is it not a fact that prior to the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP mocked Congress for not declaring its prime ministerial candidate? But, they are following the same policy of playing safe in Jharkhand," the Congress leader said.

A senior BJP leader in Jharkhand concedes that the State BJP will once again invoke Narendra Modi and try seeking votes in his name. "Though the Acche Din are yet to arrive, we are banking on Modi magic once again to win us the Vidhan Sabha polls in Jharkhand," said an insider. He agreed that though a final decision to this effect was yet to be announced, BJP is unlikely to declare a CM candidate before elections.

The idea is to go to voters and ask for a clear mandate in the name of Modi ji 's vision of development against misrule," a senior leader in the party said. While Arjun Munda still appears to be a frontrunner among BJP aspirants for the Chief Ministership post, there are others like former Deputy Chief Minister Raghubar Das, who may make his elevation difficult this time.

Notwithstanding BJP's eagerness to go for early Assembly polls in Jharkhand to capitalise the existing mood of the electorates in Jharkhand; chief election commissioner V. S. Sampath, who recently visited the State to oversee poll preparedness, seems inclined towards the logic of the JMM and Congress who want Vidhan Sabha elections after Chhath, which falls on October 29.

Since Jharkhand was created on November 15, 2000, the State has seen nine governments so far and every time it was a tribal leader who manned Chief Minister's post. BJP started with Babulal Marandi and then opted for Arjun Munda, who has been thrice Chief Minister. JMM, which also led four governments, has had Shibu Soren thrice as Chief Minister, besides opting for the current incumbent Hemant Soren once. Madhu Koda, who was propped up in September 2006 by Congress, JMM and RJD, is also a tribal.

"The BJP may not be willing to break the tradition and give the reins to a non-tribal leader if it comes to power. This is why Arjun Munda's claim looks stronger than others. But, Sudarshan Bhagat, the only representative of Jharkhand in the Modi cabinet, may also emerge as a dark horse," said a BJP senior.