HSBC PMI flash (up 1.3 ppts to 52) pointed to production acceleration, supporting 2H rebound. Citi Research expects the government to maintain the easing bias of monetary policy and continue to support selective sectors (agriculture sectors, SMEs, shanty housing).
The research house said GDP may stage a mild rebound in 2H, with annual growth reaching about 7.5% this year.
Citi estimated that the official PMI for July, which will be released on 1 August, would rise by 0.4 ppts to 51.4 thanks to growing external demand, production expansion and raw material restocking.
It believes that the positive impact from targeted easing and improving exports will likely more than offset the negative impact from the property market correction in the near term, and growth is likely to rebound in 2H.
Citi forecast the economy to grow by 7.5% YoY in 3Q and 7.7% YoY in 4Q.
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