N.H. House race could offer a rematch of a rematch

MANCHESTER, N.H. — By now, Carol Shea-Porter and Frank Guinta ought to be pretty well known here -- if voters can look beyond the party label.

In a congressional district that swings with the national pendulum, Democratic incumbent Shea-Porter and Republican ex-congressman Guinta are headed for their third faceoff in as many elections. Spoiler alert: The race is considered a tossup.

Shea-Porter won the seat in 2006, capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction with President George W. Bush to oust a Republican. Two terms later, in the Tea Party wave of 2010, Guinta unseated her. The Obama re-election surge of 2012 swept Shea-Porter back in. Now Guinta is running again for the best of two out of three.

"It's whatever the political wind is blowing,'' Rhoda Forsythe, a Guinta supporter from Newmarket, said Sunday at the Stratham Fair — where Guinta was one of several candidates who came to shake hands. "The big (midterm) wave after Bush — it's just been crazy since then.''

Independents outnumber Republicans and Democrats in the district, which includes the state's largest city, Manchester, and southern towns populated with many former Massachusetts residents.

"It's one of the few districts in the country where an incumbent is on the endangered list, immediately after being elected,'' says political scientist Dante Scala of the University of New Hampshire. "The candidates have been at the mercy of the political tides.''

That's a bit frustrating when you're the candidate dodging the line dancers at the Portsmouth Greek Festival, like Shea-Porter last weekend. Or working the crowd on a hot afternoon amid the 4-H sheep tents and carnival games, like Guinta on Sunday.

"You always would prefer to have a merit-based election than a wave-based election,'' he said. "Most people know us pretty well, and I think a midterm (election) is a better reflection of what the true thought is of the New Hampshire voter.''

President Obama's unpopularity, and the tendency of Democrats to skip voting in midterm elections, should favor Guinta. But Shea-Porter will be on the ballot with Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan, who is favored for re-election, and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a former governor who leads former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown in the polls.

"I feel very confident that people know who I am,'' Shea-Porter says. "We're going to have to work hard on turnout clearly, but what I see is a very enthusiastic Democratic base.''

Guinta was elected in 2010 with Tea Party support but did not join the Tea Party caucus in Congress. "I try not to identify myself on the ideological spectrum,'' he says. "I look at myself as a logical person who is solution-based.''

Guinta first has to win a primary Sept. 9 against Dan Innis, a hotel owner and former business school dean at the University of New Hampshire. A political newcomer, he differs little from Guinta on most issues: They are fiscal conservatives who oppose an immigration overhaul and support the Hobby Lobby Supreme Court decision allowing some companies to decline to pay for contraception methods that violate their religious principles. Innis favors abortion rights; Guinta does not. Guinta opposes same-sex marriage; Innis, one of three gay Republicans running for Congress this year, married his partner in 2010, when same-sex marriage became legal in New Hampshire.

"We've got to change the composition of Congress. No more politicians,'' Innis says. "The right candidate with the right message won't succumb to the next wave.''

Innis has a financial advantage: The UNH business school's top donor, mortgage banker Peter T. Paul, has created a political action committee to spend on Innis' behalf that is running TV ads. Shea-Porter leads both Republicans in fundraising and, without a primary, benefits from support from Democratic Party committees and Emily's List. Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., flew in to fundraise for her last weekend.

All the candidates say they embrace New Hampshire voters' famous libertarian streak — even though they see it through opposing points of view.

To Guinta, it means Obamacare is an unsupportable and unpopular government mandate. "The district is opposed to it, and (Shea-Porter) is blind to that fact,'' he says. "You have to listen to what your constituents are telling you.'' Innis proudly recounts how his son said he would rather pay a fine than buy health insurance as required under the Affordable Care Act. "We want some ability to determine our own destiny,'' he says. "The Affordable Care Act takes that away.''

Shea-Porter notes that she is a descendant of the Revolutionary War general who first said, "Live free or die,'' the state motto. To her, that motto means the Hobby Lobby ruling is an unthinkable invasion of privacy. ''Individual privacy is essential in New Hampshire,'' she says. "What I'm hearing from people is, 'What the heck are they doing?' "