By Catherine Armitage
Minority Report, the 2002 whodunnit directed by Steven Spielberg, stars Tom Cruise as a cop from the specialised "PreCrime" unit which catches criminals in Washington DC using foreknowledge from three psychics known as "precogs".
It's set in 2054, but predictive policing is already here. And it goes well beyond the "gut feelings" of cops on the beat, though that's part of it.
Tom Cruise in Minority Report
Police perceptions of crime potential in particular areas are used with other data to create "risk terrain maps" for predictive policing. Research funded by the US National Institute of Justice involves "drive-alongs" with ex-offenders in high crime neighbourhoods to get their low down on the lie of the land.
No surprise that crime favours places where easy prey is readily spotted and the perps can make a quick getaway. Big local events, proximity to pay day and the weather also affect the frequency and location of crime. A robbery in a street dramatically increases the likelihood of another robbery nearby within a short time frame.
Law enforcement agencies are feeding big data stats on types of crimes, their times and locations into computer models which can calculate, block by block within short time periods, where a patrol car might most usefully head to head off a felony. US and UK precincts where the predictive software is being used report reductions in crime rates. An area of Manchester in the UK produced big results from the cost-free technique of routing police driving instructors through high-risk areas. One concern is that police will use predictive tools to justify unfairly targeting specific neighbourhoods and groups. It's a whole new way of jumping the gun, and there's way, way more to come,