Monsoon revival narrows rainfall deficit to 35%, sowing of crops accelerates

NEW DELHI: The revival in monsoon rains this week has accelerated planting of crops, which was at half of last year’s level a week ago, averting a crisis that was looming when the seasonal rainfall deficit was 43% a few days ago.

The monsoon has now covered the entire country and narrowed the deficit to 35%, as monsoon maintained its momentum for the fourth consecutive day in most regions except Punjab and Haryana.

While the situation has improved significantly, rainfall needs to be consistently good to make up for the extended dry spell. Farmers fear that late sowing may mean lower returns, particularly if rainfall is uneven in the weeks ahead.

Agricultural experts say the prolonged dry spell could affect yields of crops and have an impact on the rabi season also.

Rainfall is likely to continue for at least another 10 days, which would help farmers plant more rice, oilseeds, pulses, cotton and coarse grains after the long dry spell.

Planting of crops is expected to increase rapidly like it did in July 2009, when the area under rice and pulses almost doubled, while cotton plating expanded even faster when heavy rainfall ended a similar dry spell in the drought year.

Rainfall deficit in the past week was 15%, improving significantly from the shortfall of 41% in the previous seven days. This has increased sowing of paddy, soyabean, bajra, guar and cotton. "Since the past 3-4 days transplanting of basmati from nursery to fields has increased. We expect acreage to increase by 15% this year," said MP Jindal, president, All India Rice Exporters Association. In 2013-14, area under basmati was 18 lakh hectares. Over normal paddy, basmati requires less water and matures earlier too.

Similarly, area under oilseeds particularly soyabean has picked up in major sowing belt of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and parts of Rajasthan. "Rains over central India has boosted the sowing. The avreage will see a marginal fall out of 3-5% this year but with the way rains are progressing we expect sowing to be complete by July 25," said Rajesh Agarwal, spokesperson, Soybean Processors Association.

Over 90% of the 107 lakh hectare expected to be under soyabean is rainfed, said Agarwal According to government officials, farmers were being advised to go for short duration varieties of 70-90 days to ensure good yield and enough time for sowing the winter crop.

"Rains across most belt of the country are conducive for farmers to go for sowing. In Maharashtra, farmers still have 10 days to go for cotton sowing. Also, there could be a slight loss in production of soyabean but farmers can go for intercropping to get maximum returns," said Dr YG Prasad, principal scientist at Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture-Hyderabad.

Prasad said soyabean could be inter cropped with pigeon pea (arhar/tur ) to get good returns. In Gujarat, where rains have been taking place since the past few days, farmers were being advised to go for groundnut (bunch varieties which grow upright) and medium duration cotton varieties.

"I transplanted basmati paddy on 4 out of 13 acres of land five days ago when rains arrived. Diesel run tube wells were also used to irrigate land and now with rains again hitting the region, I will complete the transplanting," said Chaudhary Om Prakash of Karab village in Mathura district.

The farmer was, however, concerned about loss in yield due to poor rains. "I anticipate a loss of 20% in production as of now as some saplings have died due to heat stress. The rains are not normal this year and my production cost from diesel to weedicide will increase," he said.

Ramesh Chand, director at the National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, said even with a loss of 50% in production paddy was a much more remunerative crop over millets and pulses for farmers and hence farmers would continue to go for its sowing.

"It’s becoming much clearer that moisture and water stress will impact crop yield. Rainfed areas and farms where irrigation is done through diesel propelled tubewells or canals will be hit. Farmers are risk takers and will continue to think that rain will be normal and sow crops they usually go for," he said.

Timely and normal monsoon is also vital for winter crops as it raises the water table and moisture content in the soil. "If there is delay in kharif sowing it will hit planting of wheat, lentil and sunflower. Hence farmer should go for short duration crops," said Prasad.

Monsoon is vital for India as 55% of the arable land depends entirely on rain for irrigation. While agriculture accounts for only about 15% of the economy, monsoon has a wider impact because it affects millions of people in villages, and weak rainfall can raise food prices.