MLB Fantasy Fare: Buyer beware on Brandon McCarthy
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Once the Oakland A’s, in one fell swoop, grabbed arguably the top two available pitching trade targets a week ago, it left the rest of baseball’s contenders, including the New York Yankees with, well, Brandon McCarthy.
Being a veteran starter switching leagues, McCarthy will be a moderately attractive waiver wire target for AL-only owners willing to selectively ignore the fact that he arrived in the Bronx with a) a checkered injury past, and b) a 3-10 record and a 5.10 ERA this season with the Diamondbacks. And, of course, there is the whole NL-to-AL thing which could mean his stats won’t get much better having to face a DH every game.
McCarthy’s first game back, on Thursday in Cleveland, was somewhat checkered, as well. In 6.2 innings, he allowed four runs (though only one was earned, lowering his ERA to 4.80) on nine hits. That he did not allow a home run among the 10 fly balls he served up is somewhat newsworthy. According to FanGraphs, the right-hander’s HR/FB ratio of 20.0% in Arizona — yes, that’s one in every five fly balls leaving the yard — was the highest of his career, as was his HR/9 rate of 1.23.
Let’s just say that, if this trend continues once he starts pitching in Yankee Stadium, which has yielded the second most HRs in the majors this season, things are going to get ugly.
OK, if you are really, really desperate for starting pitching and missed out on Jeff Samardzija or Jason Hammel, there are some positives. McCarthy did have a couple of solid seasons with the A’s in 2011 and ’12. And his K/9 and ground-ball rates of 7.43 and 55.3, respectively, are both career highs. Still, this is going to be a case of buyer beware.
— To get McCarthy, the Yanks gave up righty Vidal Nuno, whose surface numbers were rather similar (2-5, 5.42), but who turned in a terrific Diamondbacks debut on Tuesday with seven shutout innings (and seven Ks) in a 2-1 loss to the Marlins. He’ll get a second start on Sunday to perhaps give NL-only owners a better idea of how high to bid on him. But Nuno, 26, is pretty much hit or miss in any particular start, equally capable of a six-inning shutout or a third-inning exit, to qualify as anything more than a risky pickup.
— Don’t look now but Chris Carter finally has his AVG over .200. The Astros’ all-or-nothing slugger is on a seven-game hit streak, working on three two-hit efforts in a row, is 11-for-28 (.393) in that span and now boasts (?) an AVG of .203 heading into Saturday’s action, the first time he has been above the Mendoza line since April 8. Carter also has six HRs over his current streak, giving him 19 on the season and making him a serious mixed-league option.
— Curtis Granderson is hitting more like a cleanup batter since being moved out of that role and into the leadoff slot for the Mets. In 67 ABs atop the order, Granderson has five homers, only one fewer than he managed in 167 at cleanup.
— Wonder what happens with the A’s unheralded Stephen Vogt when Josh Reddick returns from the DL after the break? All the 29-year-old backup catcher has done as the A’s fill-in right fielder is fashion an 11-game hitting streak (18-for-38 overall, with two HRs and an SB) and raise his season AVG to .376 — which is 147 points better than Reddick. The gap between their respective OPS figures — .972 to .653 — is even more pronounced, while Vogt now has the same number of homers (4) as Reddick in 78 fewer ABs. If I’m looking just at those numbers, which the Moneyball A’s undoubtedly are, Reddick could have a difficult time getting his everyday job back.
— Kinda the same situation in Arizona with David Peralta who, as Mark Trumbo’s chief replacement in LF, batted .300 with three HRs in 109 ABs. Trumbo finally returned from the DL on Friday night but, with CF A.J. Pollock also out, Peralta was able to slide over and replace Ender Inciarte in centre. However, the tougher decision will be required when Pollock returns from hand surgery mid-August. At that time, it could come down to Peralta or Gerardo Parra in RF. The two are similar fantasy hitters (decent AVG, minimal power and speed) but Parra will have to bump his .250 AVG to something a little more respectable to hold off Peralta.
— A sign you’re having a great season: Indians OF Michael Brantley is 6-for-10 with the bases loaded this year; no homers but 17 RBIs.
WAIVER WATCH (With fantasy rating out of 5)
Jimmy Nelson SP, Brewers * * *
Highly regarded prospect gets his second crack at the Brewers rotation this season on Saturday, but this time it could be for keeps with Marco Estrada and his 27 HRs coughed up being demoted to long relief. Nelson pitched 5.2 shutout innings against the Marlins back on May 25, striking out six, but walking three.
Andrew Miller RP, Red Sox * *
He’s been dominant as a setup guy for Koji Uehara, with 57 strikeouts in just 35.2 innings while holding opposing batters to a .186 AVG. But with the Red Sox out of contention, trade interest has been up and a new destination could mean a possible closing role.
Enrique Hernandez SS, Astros * *
Rising middle infield prospect has been playing LF every day with Alex Presley on the DL and hasn’t looked out of place, with a .344 AVG (including a HR) and a 6-5 K-BB rate through 32 ABs. With the ‘Stros still in rebuilding mode and Hernandez six years younger than Presley, he could get a chance to run with the starting role once the veteran returns.
Grady Sizemore OF, Phillies *
Getting a second chance to continue his Cinderella comeback story after being released by the Bosox, he was called up Friday from triple-A, started in CF and even led off, going 1-for-4. The Phils seem pretty set in the OF with Ben Revere, Domonic Brown and Marlon Byrd (though the latter is being dangled as trade bait) so Sizemore’s chances of pulling in significant ABs appear to be slim.
HOT AND NOT (Batters the past two weeks)
Kole Calhoun LAA, .417, 16 runs, 4 HRs
Jimmy Rollins PHIL, .245, 3 homers, 5 SBs
Adrian Beltre TEX, .416, 4 HRs, 9 RBIs
Jose Altuve HOU, .309, 9 steals , 7 runs
David Freese LAA, .389, 2 HRs, 11 RBIs, SB
Sam Fuld MIN, .375, HR, 4 SBs
- - - - - - -
Yoenis Cespedes OAK, .137, 0 HRs, 0 SBs
Jean Segura MIL, .139, 1 run, 1 SB
Chris Davis BAL, .109, 1 HR, 1 run
Bryce Harper WAS, .143, 2 RBIs, 3 runs
WEIRD SPLIT
Phil Hughes MIN sp
Home ERA: 5.37
Away ERA: 2.29
All the more weird when you factor in that opposing batters are hitting .275 off him both at home and on the road.
INJURY UPDATES
Masahiro Tanaka owners will be holding their breath over the next six weeks to see if the Yankees ace’s right elbow ligament responds to rest and treatment. The biggest concern, however, is that, should he require Tommy John surgery, the longer he waits, the less chance he has of contributing anything next season. At this point, in a worst case scenario, he’d likely miss the entire 2015 season ... Shane Victorino (hamstring, back) has suffered a second rehab setback ... Brandon Phillips and Yadier Molina suffered sprained thumbs on Wednesday ... C.J. Wilson and Ubaldo Jimenez are out with sprained ankles ... Skip Schmaker and Carlos Beltran are on mandatory 7-day concussion layoffs ... Will Middlebrooks is on a triple-A rehab stint and could be there for a while ... Justin Masterson is on the DL, finally giving in to the sore right knee that is believed to be affecting his throwing ... Colin McHugh (fingernail) could miss his weekend start ... Jason Vargas is out following an appendectomy ... Desmond Jennings bruised his knee on Friday.