Lady, Modi or Daddy? Tamil Nadu to decide today

CHENNAI: After close to two months of hectic electioneering, the 39 Lok Sabha constituencies in Tamil Nadu are going to polls on Thursday. The high-decibel campaign saw the focus shifting from bread-and-butter issues like drinking water shortage and power outages to trading of charges between DMK and AIADMK, and then to Modi-bashing by both the Dravidian parties.
Since the campaign started, the fortunes of the ruling AIADMK have slid considerably, if the opinion polls conducted by various media groups are any indication.Still, it is seen as the frontrunner and may emerge as the single largest party. Scarcity of drinking water and frequent power outages are biting the ruling dispensation where it hurts most.
The rainbow alliance cobbled up by BJP by bringing together the warring PMK, DMDK and MDMK may prove to be a game changer. The alliance is putting up a spirited show in all the 38 seats it is contesting, riding high on the flying visits of Modi to the Dravidian heartland that shifted the focus of debate from petty diatribe between AIADMK and DMK for one-upmanship to broader issues of governance. The BJP front is pinning hopes on the consolidation of vanniyar and gounder votes in northern and western Tamil Nadu in its favour. It has good prospects in close to 10 seats and could play spoilsport in many others which may benefit DMK, say opinion polls.
DMK chief M Karunanidhi is banking heavily on the Muslim-dalit combination. While about 18% dalits are spread out across the state, Muslims are a decisive force in 10 constituencies. Jayalalithaa’s reluctance to take on Modi during the initial phase of the campaign alienated Muslims in good measure from AIADMK, and her attack on BJP in the last phase may have distanced many BJP sympathizers who would have otherwise voter for her party.
BJP’s inability to field a candidate against former telecom minister A Raja, seen as the architect of the 2G scam, in the Nilgiris reserved constituency has raised doubts about the national party’s commitment to fight corruption. BJP’s exit may, however, harm Raja and strengthen AIADMK’s chances of winning the prestigious seat.
Congress and the Left parties are left in the lurch, with no ally to hinge on. As the going got tough, two prominent Congress leaders -- Union ministers P Chidambaram and G K Vasan – opted out of the polls. The party is now focused on protecting its vestiges to drive bargains with probable allies in future polls.
The seizure of more than Rs 36 crore by various agencies in the run-up to the elections has not been a dampener for the political parties. Much more seems to be parked out there for last-minute distribution. On poll eve, the two Dravidian majors traded charges against each other on distribution of money to the electorate.