It's remarkable how fast the triumphalist vision of United Auto Workers President Bob King is crumbling.
The union's decision this week to stop contesting the vote in Chattanooga comprises a strategic rather than merely tactical retreat, representing nothing less than the UAW's concession that it will never organize a foreign-owned auto plant in this country.
And the move further weakens the union overall as it heads into next year's big contract talks with the Detroit Three. The collapse of the UAW's vision for renewed growth does not somehow make it a more dangerous adversary for
Understandably, King tried to put the best face on the union's stunning admission of defeat in the South. He made it sound as if the UAW was simply keeping its powder dry now by standing down and finally accepting the vote in February in which workers at the Volkswagen plant in Tennessee rejected UAW representation -- even though the company had made it easy for the union to build favorable sentiment in the plant.
Nearing retirement, King said he worried that continued UAW legal maneuvering against the vote "could have dragged on for months or even years." But the union has always been proud of "struggles" that have lasted years or even decades, ranging from the long push that led to its origins in the mid-Twentieth Century to its six-year-long effort to bring
King also suggested that the union would sacrificially get out of the way now so that it could focus on "advocating for new jobs and economic investment in Chattanooga," a reference to Tennessee politicians tying any new state financial incentives for the plant to its continued non-union status.
But the reality is that the UAW now has absolutely no influence on whether Volkswagen builds a plant to make its new SUV right next to the car plant in Chattanooga, or in Mexico.
It was curious to see the Wall Street Journal -- which nails most things -- opine that, because of its concession on Chattanooga, the UAW "may ... drive an even harder bargain as it tries to renegotiate its labor deals" with the Detroit Three, "especially to get rid of the entry-level wage scale for new workers."
Instead, it's far more likely that Detroit Three negotiators actually now perceive more blood in the water from the UAW than they did before and will prove even more resolute about retaining two-tier wages. So far, the two-tier system has been crucial for GM, Ford and Chrysler in being able to launch worthy new small cars that are finally competitive with imports, and to do so profitably or nearly in the black. About 40 percent of Chrysler workers now are second-tier.
A union that already has lost most of its membership over the last generation, and now has essentially given up hope for repopulating its ranks, will be a weaker foil for the Detroit automakers, not a stronger one.
The UAW presumably also will court disaffection of its remaining members by pressing forward with its plans to raise dues at the union's convention in June. It would be the first time since 1967 that the union increased its portion of workers' pay. In January, King said that the increase would help fuel the UAW's major organizing push in the South. What will he say now?
Further adding to the union's problems is that its political cover -- so well maintained by the Obama administration -- may slip significantly if Republicans surge in Congressional elections this fall, including possibly taking the Senate from Democrats.
And the economy isn't likely to do the UAW any favors in 2015, given that a leveling off of growth in U.S. auto sales by then probably will follow the last several years of robust recovery. The UAW likes to clamor for more compensation for its members when the Detroit Three are enjoying strong profits during boom times, but the financial picture for GM, Ford and Chrysler a year from now may be muddied at best.
In the meantime, lurking in the background are new right-to-work laws in Michigan and Indiana to lure the tens of thousands of UAW members in those states, the biggest concentration of union members. They can see that freedom from an increasingly ineffectual and expensive organization may be closer than they'd ever imagined. Surely they'll be reminded of that by all sorts of interest groups in the months ahead.
This all sets up a scenario that could continue to go south for the United Auto Workers more quickly than anyone had imagined. And it's not the South that King was hoping for.
