BJP's rise has upset balance in Karnataka, says Aravind Gowda
Karnataka, which has pioneered the concept of regional political parties, witnessed a reversal of trend during the current Parliamentary polls, in which the number of such parties reduced to a handful.
Former Chief Minister B. S. Yeddyurappa merged his KJP into the BJP. Former minister B. Sriramulu, who had quit the BJP in a huff to launch his outfit BSR Congress, dissolved it to return to his parent party. Former CM J. H. Patel's son Mahima Patel dissolved his Suvarna Yuga party to join the Janata Dal (Secular).
Karnataka, which has pioneered the concept of regional political parties, witnessed a reversal of trend during the current Parliamentary polls, in which the number of such parties reduced to a handful. Nearly 15 years ago, powerful leaders were heading All India Progressive Janata Dal (AIPJD), Lok Shakti, Karnataka Congress Party and many more alongside the Congress and the BJP. But today, neither these parties exist nor are their leaders politically active for various reasons.
One of the major reasons for abrupt end of the reign of regional outfits in Karnataka is the emergence of the BJP in the last ten years. Today, there are just three political parties in Karnataka -Congress, BJP and JD(S)-which have significant presence in electoral politics. The only other noteworthy political outfit in the state is Karnataka Rajya Raitha Sangha, a forum of farmers' leaders, restricted to the Old Mysore region.
During this election, voters across the state had just two options-Congress and BJP-because the JD(S) had largely restricted itself to south Karnataka.
Though the JD(S) claims to have presence across the state, the Vokkaligas (second largest community), who are concentrated in south and central Karnataka, have identified themselves with this party. Consequently, the party enjoys goodwill with the voters in these parts of the state.
When Yeddyurappa launched the KJP, it was widely expected that it would become the political forum for the state's largest community Lingayats. However, he could not sustain political interest of the community, forcing the Lingayats to continue patronising the BJP as before. Even a hardcore Lingayat leader like Yeddyurappa had to made political compromises abandoning his dream of building a party on the basis of community power.
Many of the regional political stalwarts, who were capable of leading their own political outfits, have been accommodated in the BJP. These leaders too realised the fact that in the absence of other leaders and adequate support base in Karnataka, they will be fighting a losing battle in the long term. In addition, voters too have understood that patronising regional political outfits is not in their interest.
Consequently, the experimentation with regional parties, unlike in the neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu or Kerala, has almost ended in Karnataka.
Another reason for the decline of local parties is the absence of any major regional issues in Karnataka.
The caste-based politics has also not paid any major political dividends to regional outfits launched on those lines.
For now, it seems the situation is not in favour of any new party.
Dissidence in Karnataka Congress has worsened, with a section of party leaders being keen on the ouster of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah if the party performs poorly in the Parliamentary polls.
Apparently, some Congress leaders, led by Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee president G. Parameshwara, are of the opinion that Siddaramaiah should not continue as CM if the party fails to win more than 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
While Siddaramaiah has set himself a target of 15 seats, the outcome of the elections is bound to shake the Karnataka Congress. Siddaramaiah and Parameshwara have been at loggerheads ever since the Congress assumed power and the latter was denied the post of deputy CM. All eyes are on Mysore, Siddaramaiah's hometown, as his close friend, H. Vishwanath (sitting MP), is seeking re- election. The BJP has fielded journalist Prathap Simha from Mysore and BJP's PM candidate Narendra Modi campaigned for him extensively.
If the BJP emerges victorious in Mysore, it will reflect poorly on Siddaramaiah's leadership. Congress candidates in the neighbouring Mandya, Chamarajanagara and Hassan constituencies too are facing poor prospects in the polls.
The CM is under tremendous pressure as he keeps his fingers crossed till May 16.
Six years ago, he was calling the shots in the Karnataka BJP with nobody to stop him. But now, former Chief Minister B. S. Yeddyurappa, who is facing plenty of court cases following his inglorious tenure, is maintaining such a low profile in politics that his campaigning hardly made any noise. He is pitted against Geetha Shivarajkumar, daughter of former CM S. Bangarappa, in Shimoga.
BJP leaders admit that Yeddyurappa has remained dormant in the elections preferring not to campaign for any other candidate. Just to send a message to the outside world that all is well between him and his bete noire Ananth Kumar ( who is contesting from Bangalore South), Yeddyurappa campaigned for him in Bangalore. Otherwise, his campaign was restricted to Shimoga and the neighbouring Udupi- Chikmagalur seat, where his confidante Shobha Karandlaje is in the fray.
There are several reasons for the former CM to stay away from other constituencies.
Firstly, he has realised that he is unlikely to get any major assignment at the Centre even if the BJP- led NDA comes to power. This is because of two dozen plus cases pending against him. Secondly, if anything goes wrong with the BJP's performance in the polls in Karnataka, he is not ready to take the blame. It appears he has taken a wise decision considering the infighting in the BJP in the state.