Modi powered BJP breaches southern fortress
According to the new survey, BJP and its allies are set to strengthen their position, bagging up to six Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu, and between 17 and 21 seats in Andhra Pradesh.
For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), southern states of India, except Karnataka, have remained a tough terrain. While the BJP has grown leaps and bounds in other parts of the country, electorate in India's south has traditionally preferred a whole gamut of regional parties, besides the Congress and the Left.
But it is likely to change in this Lok Sabha election as the recent India Today Group- Cicero survey reveals. Thanks to its rainbow alliance in Tamil Nadu and its partnership with the Telugu Desam Party ( TDP) in Andhra, the saffron party will breach the southern fortress.
According to the new survey, BJP and its allies are set to strengthen their position, bagging up to six Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu, and between 17 and 21 seats in Andhra Pradesh.
In the 2009 polls, the BJP and its allies had won just one seat in Tamil Nadu and six in Andhra Pradesh. This time round, they are projected to improve their presence in both the states despite a fall in their vote share in Tamil Nadu, according to the poll.
While the vote share of BJP and its allies in Tamil Nadu is projected to drop from 21.8 per cent in 2009 to 16 per cent, it is expected to increase in Andhra Pradesh from 28.7 per cent in 2009 to 37 per cent.
The BJP has so far had a negligible presence in these southern states. But the party has focused on them as part of its efforts to come to power at the Centre with Narendra Modi as the prime minister of India. Besides strengthening its units in these states, the party has forged alliances with key regional players like Chandrababu Naidu's TDP in Andhra Pradesh.
The BJP- led alliance in Tamil Nadu comprises actor- politician Vijayakanth's Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam ( DMDK), Pattali Makkal Katchi ( PMK) founded by S. Ramadoss, Vaikoled Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam ( MDMK), besides Indiya Jananayaka Katchi ( IJK) and Kongu Nadu Makkal Desiya Katchi ( KMDK).
With this alliance, which was announced last month by BJP president Rajnath Singh, the two major Dravidian parties --- Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam ( DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam ( AIADMK) - will face a tough contest in the state.
The gains of the BJP and its allies in Tamil Nadu will largely be at the cost of the Congress and the DMK led by M. Karunanidhi; while in Andhra Pradesh, it will be at the cost of the Congress, according to the survey conducted earlier this month.
The Congress, which won eight Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu in 2009, is not expected to open its account in the state this time round. The AIADMK, led by J. Jayalalithaa, is projected to win 20 to 24 seats while the DMK and its allies are set to win nine to 13 seats. The AIADMK had won only nine seats in the last general elections.
2009, the Congress came to power at the Centre largely because of the gains it made in Andhra Pradesh by winning 33 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in state. But the Grand Old Party is all set to lose that advantage following massive rebellion in the party ranks over bifurcation of the state, besides the tough challenge thrown at it by Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy of the YSR Congress.
In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress's tally is projected to fall from 33 Lok Sabha seats in 2009 to only four to six seats. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), which bagged three seats in the last polls, is tipped to improve its tally to six to 10 seats; while the YSR Congress is expected to bag seven to 11 seats.
The Congress's vote share in Tamil Nadu is projected to fall from 15 per cent in 2009 to eight per cent, while its vote share in Andhra Pradesh is expected to decline from 54.6 per cent in 2009 to 16 per cent.
In Tamil Nadu, a total of 1,358 interviews were conducted across 100 locations, and 50 of the 234 Assembly constituencies of the state were sampled. A total of 1,793 interviews were conducted across 120 locations in Andhra Pradesh, and 60 of the 294 Assembly constituencies of Andhra Pradesh were sampled.
In Tamil Nadu, 29 per cent of respondents backed AIADMK leader J. Jayalalithaa for the post of prime minister, while 25 per cent backed BJP prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi and 19 per cent supported Congress vice- president Rahul Gandhi.
Forty- seven per cent of respondents in Andhra Pradesh said they would back Modi for the post of prime minister, 17 per cent backed Rahul Gandhi and eight per cent backed Congress president Sonia Gandhi.