The Mayiladuthurai Lok Sabha constituency could be a psephologist’s riddle for its stark disconnects — where the candidate’s perception of performance aligns with that of the voter, yet it might not translate into votes. This is true for three-time MP and Congress veteran, Mani Shankar Aiyar, who, in public perception, is a credible and visible face of Mayiladuthurai, yet is not seen as a sure winner.
This time, Mayiladuthurai will witness a four-cornered contest among the AIADMK, the Manitha Neya Makkal Katchi (MNMK) of the DMK-front, the Congress and the PMK of the BJP alliance.
Made up of the Mayiladuthurai, Sirkazhi, Poompuhar, Kumbakonam, Papanasam, and Thiruvidaimaruthur Assembly segments, this constituency has a heterogeneous electorate, with a mix of affluent commercial class, literati, farm labourers, fisherfolk and landed farmers.
However, the outcome is likely to be influenced by factionalism in the AIADMK and the DMK and the lack of enthusiasm among DMK workers for the MNMK, which is fighting the polls on a different symbol (two candles).
This may help Mr. Aiyar, who is fighting on the strength of his work, braving anti-incumbency.
The MNMK is unable to strike a chord with the electorate. Its candidate Haider Ali’s refusal to greet people with folded hands — a gesture according to his faith is reserved only for the Almighty — is seen as an alienating factor. Its agitation to demand a ban on the Kamal Haasan-starrer Vishwaroopam has also come back to haunt the party.
The Muslim population, the third largest in the constituency, is 2-2.5 lakh strong, with close to 45,000 voters working abroad. The party is walking the extra mile to bring them back to the country to take part in the elections.
The PMK’s candidate and deputy general secretary, Agoram, is a familiar face from Poompuhar. He is dogged by an image of street-politicking and katta panchayat . However, the electorate, looking to see Narendra Modi as the next Prime Minister, is disenchanted with the PMK’s politics in the State. Yet, the party hopes to garner the votes of the Vanniyars, the second largest population segment, next only to Dalits.
However, the Vanniyars are dispersed across parties. AIADMK candidate Bharathi Mohan is a Vanniyar and is a new face. The electorate is largely displeased with the sitting MP, O.S. Manian, for “non-performance.” For Mr. Bharathi Mohan, Mr. Manian’s record is a burden. Still the AIADMK candidate is seen as a strong contender in the backdrop of the voters’ determination to oust the Congress, at the same time not to be drawn to the alienating politics of either the PMK or the MNMK.
Mr. Aiyar’s has an enviable, albeit limited, base of the highly literate and the poor. His connect with the poorest in the villages and his efforts to build 600 graveyard sheds in each panchayat are expected to get him their support. His plank is the candidate’s ability to highlight the constituency’s demands in Delhi and get things done. Kumbakonam, Papanasam, and Thiruvidaimaruthur also have reckonable Congress loyalists.
Yet, with disparate demands, ranging from Kumbakonam’s plea for a medical college and tourism development, to civic demands across the Assembly segments and stiff opposition to the coal-bed methane project in the Cauvery Delta, the plot only gets thicker.
