Afghanistan-Pakistan policy key for India

The next government at the Centre will have a full foreign policy slate but it is unlikely that any issue will need as much attention as the Afghanistan-Pakistan region following the resurgence of the Taliban in both countries and the Nawaz Sharif government's steadfast refusal to take a tough stand on militancy.

After over a year of drift in ties with Pakistan following India's decision to put talks on hold in the wake of the brutal killing of soldiers along the Line of Control, the new government in New Delhi will have to work swiftly both to fashion a new policy on engaging with Islamabad and to put in place measures to deal with the threat posed by the emboldened Taliban and the re-emergence of jihadis like Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Maulana Masood Azhar and Mast Gul.

Well ahead of the drawdown by US-led foreign forces in Afghanistan, there were whispers about Pakistan-based jihadi groups again turning their focus to Jammu and Kashmir. Addressing a rally held in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir on January 26 by phone, Masood Azhar - freed by India in exchange for passengers of a hijacked Indian Airlines flight in 2000 - spoke openly about exacting a "dreaded revenge" for the execution of Afzal Guru.

Steps taken

Though some steps were taken by Pakistan to restrict activities of the Jamaat-ud-Dawah in the aftermath of the Mumbai terror attacks in 2008, the group was never formally banned and its founder, Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, continues to operate freely and spew venom against India despite a $10 million bounty offered for him by the US. Analysts often point to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's frequent public assertions after his PMLN party's overwhelming win in the 2013 general election about the need to improve ties with India. But policy-makers would do well to remember that Pakistan's most populous province of Punjab - where anti-India groups like the Jaishe-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba have their largest bases - has been ruled since 2008 by the PML-N, which did little to curtail their activities.

Continued recruitals

Both the JeM and LeT have continued to recruit and raise funds and the Falah-e-Insaniyat Foundation, a front for the Jamaat-ud-Dawah, now has a huge 'markaz' or centre even in Islamabad.

The lawyer who till recently represented LeT operations commander Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the main accused in the Mumbai attacks, was also the counsel for the Sharif family in a raft of corruption cases. The issue of several PML-N leaders hob-nobbing with the JuD and attending rallies and meetings organised by the Defa-e-Pakistan Council has been raised with the party by Indian diplomats several times.

Indian security officials think it is unlikely that the Pakistani security establishment will sever its ties with anti-India groups like the LeT anytime soon. The PML-N government's soft position on talks with the Pakistani Taliban gives credence to such fears.

Nawaz Sharif's government has also dragged its feet on giving MFN-status to India, something that the previous Pakistan People's Party-led regime had pledged to implement in January 2013. After talk of changing the nomenclature of the MFN-status to Non-Discriminatory Market Access to satisfy hardline elements within the country, the government has again done a U-turn and put the proposal on hold, till India resumes the composite dialogue process.

What does this all mean for the new government in New Delhi? There will have to be a very clear approach that takes into consideration the possibility that groups like the LeT could ramp up their terrorist activities both in Kashmir in other parts of India. Already there are reports that some Indian Mujahideen cadres have been training with the Taliban in Pakistan's tribal belt and this is part of a new and ominous trend.

Pakistan has never been happy about India's involvement in the reconstruction of Afghanistan but the new government will have to move quickly to ensure that it remains a key player in that country especially after the withdrawal of US and NATO forces.

All in all, the new government and its foreign policy team will have to hit the ground running to ensure they have an edge in Af-Pak affairs.

Judge threatened in Mumbai attacks trial

The trial in Pakistan of seven men charged with involvement in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, including LeT commander Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, has been getting curiouser and curiouser with every passing month. The latest reports from across the border suggest the trial has been stalled for almost a month because the judge of the antiterrorism court is concerned about threats to him and lawyers handling the case.

The judge conveyed his concerns to the government and sought security after militants attacked a court complex in Islamabad and killed 12 people on March 3. However, the hearings of the Mumbai attacks case are held within the heavily guarded Adiala Jail, where the accused are also detained.

The judge's hearing in the Mumbai attacks case has been changed at least five times and the trial suffered another delay last year when it was shifted from an anti-terrorism court in Rawalpindi to another one in Islamabad. More significantly, the main prosecutor handling the case, Chaudhry Zulfiqar Ali, was gunned down by militants in Islamabad in May last year.

The Federal Investigation Agency, at one stage, had listed over 160 witnesses after the trial got underway in early 2009. However, only a few dozen of them have appeared in court to testify. Reports suggest some individuals have refused to testify after Ali's assassination.

Pakistan's anti-terrorism courts have a poor track record as far as the prosecution of accused in high-profile terror attacks within the country are concerned - many suspects have been let off simply because witnesses have refused to testify or because of shoddy investigation. The Mumbai attacks case is burdened with more complexities, including the use of evidence gathered by Indian and American investigators and it remains to be seen whether a verdict will come in sometime in the near future.

Hercules air crash puzzles security forces

The recent crash of a C-130J Super Hercules, one of the Indian Air Force's most reliable platforms, and the loss of its fivemember crew has flummoxed the security establishment.

The aircraft crashed while on a routine training mission in good weather. Adding to concerns is the fact that the crew included two experienced wing commanders, one of whom was in line to take over the IAF's "Veiled Vipers" squadron that flies the C-130Js, considered safer than some commercial aircraft, and that there was no distress call.

The probe into the crash has involved roping in American experts, both from the USAF and the aircraft's manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, to help decipher the damaged flight data recorder and to examine crucial components.

While the IAF has worked with foreign manufacturers from countries like Russia, this is the first time the US has been made part of such a probe. The findings of the probe are also expected to have a bearing on India's move to acquire an additional six C-130Js.