Progress or war? Afghan election offers historic choice

KABUL — In the western Afghan city of Herat, girls in public schools cruise the Internet, write blogs and post on Facebook.

In Wardak province near Kabul, those who dare to go to class sit on floors in secret schools in private homes that close down for a week when Taliban leaders visit the district from Pakistan.

These students don't have access to computers — much less books, desks or teachers with more than an eighth-grade education. But they say they don't want to quit.

"I want to be a doctor," said eighth-grader Hosnai, whose favorite subject is math and who loves to jump rope and play Frisbee. "I want to support and help my community in the future."

Twelve years after the U.S.-led military action drove the Taliban out of Kabul, Afghanistan is at a crossroads as it goes into elections Saturday, its first democratic transfer of power. The country has made great, if uneven, strides since 2001, but as U.S. and NATO troops depart — having invested much blood and treasure — much is left unfinished: Militants and warlords still control large swaths of the country, corruption is eating up revenue and half of school-age children still don't go to school. Many, if they do, attend in secret.

Afghans say the elections will determine their future: If they are deemed fair and transparent, the country can move forward and tackle its key issues of security, corruption, education and employment. If they aren't, many say they expect the situation to sharply deteriorate.

"I am optimistic; I hope for fair and transparent elections," said security guard Noor Rahman, 45, at work at a private residence in an affluent area of Kabul, where the streets are paved and the high walls around homes are topped with barbed wire. "If we have fair elections, things will improve. If not, clearly things will get worse — we'll have a civil war again."

There are numerous presidential candidates and three front-runners — Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, Zalmai Rassoul, Abdullah Abdullah — no one is sure who will win. But what worries people like Rahman is that the majority of people in the country are armed, and that makes the situation shaky and the country's peace fragile.

Ahmadzai is a former finance minister, Rassoul is a former foreign minister, and Abdullah is a member of parliament and a doctor who lost to President Hamid Karzai in his previous election.

"During the last elections, although fraud took place, no one lost control of the country as Karzai's government was firmly in power," he said. "But now, if the elections are not transparent, the other (losing) candidates might start something … and everyone has a weapon in their hands these days."

In spite of the fears, most voters in dozens of interviews with USA TODAY said they were proud to be holding this vote and of Afghanistan's other achievements over the past decade. That's because then, Afghanistan was at "zero" as they call it here.

HOW FAR THEY'VE COME

In December 2001, after three decades of war and five years of Taliban rule, Kabul was empty and shattered: Few stores offered wares, the streets were deserted, and buildings and roads were marked with craters and bullet holes. Virtually no one had telephones, much less reliable electricity. There was no free press and one state-run television channel broadcasting two hours a day.

In those Taliban years, thousands died and millions fled abroad. Beggars appeared for the first time because of a shattered economy. And by the time it was over, women and girls — ordered to stay at home by the Taliban — had missed five years of school.

These days, Kabul's markets bustle with life and the streets are chaotic with cars jostling to get through the capital's daily jams on streets lined with billboards advertising mobile phone deals and the candidates for the election. Now, the country has more than 20 million cellphone users, hundreds of media outlets and 70 televisions channels — and one broadcasts a hit satire show taking aim at the country's political leaders.

Afghanistan now has about 50,000 miles of new roads, a functioning government, police force and military. Its universities churn out more than 100,000 new graduates each year, including women. It has an airline again and electricity — which goes out daily but at least comes back on a few hours later.

At the same time, many streets in the capital remain full of craters of mud. Voters say they don't trust the government or the police force, and that the former hasn't done much to improve the country and the later is criminal and corrupt. And while the number of students has increased from 1 million to 9 million, only half of school-age children go to school.

"We started at zero," said economist Azarakhsh Hafizi, CEO of the General Union of Oil and Gas Companies of Afghanistan, an industry association and a board member of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Industries. "Now, our achievements outweigh our failures. The question is, how can we keep these safe and move forward?"

Analysts and the business community say there is tremendous potential for the Afghan economy, which remains underdeveloped, propped up artificially by billions in foreign aid. Today, unemployment tops 35% and few jobs are available for the 400,000 young people who enter the labor market annually.

Kabul biologist Abida Mirri, 30, says she has long looked for a job and hopes the elections will improve the situation in Afghanistan — and her future.

"I want a job, but it's very difficult — you have to know someone," she said. "Here, people need money to get a job."

GOVERNANCE BY BRIBES

Corruption is one of the key obstacles to growth and progress in the country, and it is rising, says Yama Torabi, executive director of Integrity Watch Afghanistan, an anti-corruption watchdog organization in Kabul. He adds that the organization's regular surveys show it ranks among the top two highest concerns of voters.

The numbers are astonishing, say corruption officials. In 2012, Afghans paid $1.2 billion in bribes. That amount increased to $1.9 billion last year — about 10% of the country's GDP.

"It has gotten worse, the amount of bribes paid is increasing and that is not due to inflation," he said. "This is going beyond higher amounts paid or more bribes paid, but also the percentage of people paying is getting higher."

The business community in Afghanistan says this culture must change, as it is preventing sorely needed infrastructure development, foreign and local investment, and promoting capital flight — to the tune of $8 billion a year.

"This government is corrupt, they lack knowledge, experience and are not serious," said Hafizi. "We in the business community are ready to increase production 200% and create 2 million jobs — if allowed. But when a government official says, 'Give us $5 million and I will allow you to do that,' we can't, because otherwise we won't be able to compete."

Most feel the pinch of bribery in their daily lives in everything from registering the birth of their children to buying an apartment to getting a driver's license — the latter costs $400 in bribes on average, says Torabi.

"I wanted to change my ID, and every person I encountered (at the administration) wanted me to give them money," said Ahmad Rashid, 27, a civil engineer in Kabul.

And Kabul and other major cities are marked by it physically: Some roads remain incomplete or unusable, and government buildings, including new schools, remain condemned because the contractors skimmed off the materials.

Torabi says the candidates speak a lot about corruption even as he remains unsure of the next government's commitment to fighting it.

"There isn't a lot of political will to fight corruption," he said. "Lots of candidates are talking about it and yet all of them want impunity for past crimes, no punishment, no commitment to sanctions."

SEEKING A 'PERMANENT PEACE'

Still, the top concern of voters — and investors — remains security. Since 2009, the Taliban have been consolidating their control in parts of the country, including Wardak and Logar provinces, which are considered gateways to Kabul. Civilian casualties have been rising for the past five years. In 2013, 2,959 civilians were killed mainly by insurgents — a 7% increase over 2012, according to the United Nations.

Many voters expressed fear that once the U.S. and NATO troops are gone, the Taliban will regain control of the country. In the meantime, militants have vowed to disrupt the election: In the past three weeks, dozens have been killed around the country by suicide bombers and in targeted shooting attacks, including on the election commission's headquarters and on the heavily fortified Serena Hotel in Kabul during a holiday dinner.

Even so, turnout is expected to be higher for this election than the previous two, and locals say that fear of the Taliban won't keep them from the polls.

"I am excited about the elections because they will help our country to develop to a better level," said Khan Mir, 22, while dishing out local specialties at the deli section of a local grocery store in downtown Kabul. "It's enough, all this insecurity — I am optimistic that the elections can bring about a permanent peace."

Mahmoda Sonia Eqbal, CEO of the Pahna Group, a consulting group that recently completed a study of voters in the 2009 election, says that then, some voters reported waiting for the shooting to die down before going to vote. She thinks the same will happen this time around.

"As we are getting closer to the election, of course the level of uncertainty is increasing, and there is this anxiety of what is going to happen especially with the attacks and everything," said Eqbal, who is also a leader in the Afghanistan 1400 political movement, which aims to promote progressive change in the country. "That's what they want, to affect our spirit. But the level of frustration and anger is growing and people are now saying, 'You cannot stop us from living our lives' — even if we don't know if at the end of the day we will be alive. But we won't stop, so bring it on."

Basirah Omari, 20, hopes for the day when her country turns the corner. Earning $120 a month as a teacher of girls in a secret school in Wardak province, she only has an eighth-grade education. That's because there are no higher grades available for girls in this district.

"The insecurity, violence, also from within the family, it makes it very difficult to get more schooling," she said. "But I want to teach others what I have learned, and face my challenges. I want to get more education — eighth grade was the highest I could go, and I finished it seven years ago."

So once a year she travels to Kabul to work on completing ninth grade. It's a start, she says.

"We can't participate in society, only in the home," she added. "But at least now, my relatives don't get aggressive against me about going to school anymore."