By: Neerja Chowdhury
When the year opened, Election 2014 looked like a Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi fight. Today the battle has acquired a Modi versus 'Others' pitch, with the BJP's prime ministerial aspirant the central poll issue.
There has been a growing awareness in those opposed to Modi that if he has to be stopped, it can be done only by a front of non-Congress, non-BJP parties — call it "Third Front", "Federal Front" or another variant — and supported by Congress. Given the anger against UPA, the chances of Congress leading the next government appear slim. Whatever be its rhetoric, Congress seems reconciled to this possibility.
The Left parties had put together an 11-party 'Third Front' to slow down the Modi rath. But it is showing signs of coming apart. Jayalalithaa has ended her electoral understanding with CPI and CPM. Obviously, she wants to keep her options open. So does Naveen Patnaik, and for that matter AGP's Prafulla Mahanta, who did not attend the Third Front's last meeting. Barring AIADMK and BJD, who seem to be holding their ground, others in the Third Front, be it SP, JD(U), AGP or JD(S), are declining forces. The four Left parties have not gathered momentum as they had hoped to.
AAP, a wild card this election, was also expected to break BJP's march to power, as it did in the Delhi assembly polls. Arvind Kejriwal is clearly trying to widen AAP's base and eyeing the support of minorities. His resolve to contest against Modi wherever he stands outside Gujarat, his visit to Gujarat and beard the lion in his den, his decision to utilise his detention in Gujarat — it showed Kejriwal's sharp political reflexes — to protest outside BJP's national headquarters, were calculated to demonstrate that if anyone was taking on Modi fearlessly, it was AAP.
The trouble is that the upper classes and a section of the middle class are disenchanted with AAP, after Kejriwal's 'dharna', his resignation as chief minister and the recent violence it was embroiled in. With these sections gravitating to BJP, Kejriwal might end up helping Modi. And denting Congress — and possibly some of the regional outfits — that much more.
Then there is the MAJAMA — Mamata, Jayalalithaa and Maya-wati — phenomenon. These are three women who represent three large states. As things stand today, together "Ma", "Ja" and "Ma" may well add up to around 75-80 Lok Sabha seats. Maverick and gutsy, they are expected to be king/queen makers and we may see the rise of woman power in the coming weeks.
With the launch of her "Federal Front", Mamata has upstaged Left parties' initiative for a Third Front and she has already reached out to Jayalalithaa, projecting her as a possible PM.
Mayawati cannot go with the Third Front because of Mula-yam Singh's presence, but so far she has been silent about the Federal Front even as she has taken on Modi stridently, and is unlikely to join hands with him even after the elections. It is for the simple reason that with state elections due in 2017, she will not want to risk the possibility of minorities moving towards Mulayam, robbing her of the possibility of becoming CM again. The same logic applies to Mamata who faces assembly polls in 2016.
Mamata is better placed than Mayawati or Jayalalithaa (whose income-tax cases are expected to fructify in the next three months) to tap into the current mood for clean politics. Having roped in Anna Hazare, the duo wants to encash the anti-corruption mood in the country which AAP has benefited from. Both Mamata and Anna enjoy a clean and austere image. Mamata would obviously like a "national party" status for Trinamool Congress and to enlarge the Federal Front for which she is reaching out to other regional parties like BJD.
The significance of her initiative, however, goes beyond these two goals. If Mamata's "national party" emerges as a solid group, with say 35 seats, it is not inconceivable that she might decide to join hands with Sharad Pawar's NCP, which, like TMC, came out of the Congress womb. Together they could act as a bloc of former Congresspersons to improve their bargaining position with other state satraps after the polls, were an opportunity for a non-Congress, non-BJP-led government to arise.
They could also compel the Congress high command to accept their choice of who should lead the government. A weakened Congress — this time it will comprise MPs who would have won largely on their own steam — may have to fall in line, if they have to stop Modi, or it could become vulnerable to a split. Undoubtedly, there are many ifs and buts in this scenario.
Many Congressmen, who quit the party in the past managed to become prime ministers, whether it was Morarji Desai, Charan Singh, V P Singh, Chandra Shekhar, H D Deve Gowda, or I K Gujral. But they did not manage to capture Congress, though they may have dreamt of a Cong-ress minus the Gandhi-Nehru family, and some may continue to harbour these ambitions.
Clearly, the idea of a pre-poll Third Front has received a setback. The Federal Front is yet to become viable. But regional satraps continue to position themselves. The chance that fortune might smile on them is only an outside one. It goes without saying that everything will hinge on the arithmetic of the 16th Lok Sabha.
The writer is a political commentator.
When the year opened, Election 2014 looked like a Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi fight. Today the battle has acquired a Modi versus 'Others' pitch, with the BJP's prime ministerial aspirant the central poll issue.
There has been a growing awareness in those opposed to Modi that if he has to be stopped, it can be done only by a front of non-Congress, non-BJP parties — call it "Third Front", "Federal Front" or another variant — and supported by Congress. Given the anger against UPA, the chances of Congress leading the next government appear slim. Whatever be its rhetoric, Congress seems reconciled to this possibility.
The Left parties had put together an 11-party 'Third Front' to slow down the Modi rath. But it is showing signs of coming apart. Jayalalithaa has ended her electoral understanding with CPI and CPM. Obviously, she wants to keep her options open. So does Naveen Patnaik, and for that matter AGP's Prafulla Mahanta, who did not attend the Third Front's last meeting. Barring AIADMK and BJD, who seem to be holding their ground, others in the Third Front, be it SP, JD(U), AGP or JD(S), are declining forces. The four Left parties have not gathered momentum as they had hoped to.
AAP, a wild card this election, was also expected to break BJP's march to power, as it did in the Delhi assembly polls. Arvind Kejriwal is clearly trying to widen AAP's base and eyeing the support of minorities. His resolve to contest against Modi wherever he stands outside Gujarat, his visit to Gujarat and beard the lion in his den, his decision to utilise his detention in Gujarat — it showed Kejriwal's sharp political reflexes — to protest outside BJP's national headquarters, were calculated to demonstrate that if anyone was taking on Modi fearlessly, it was AAP.
The trouble is that the upper classes and a section of the middle class are disenchanted with AAP, after Kejriwal's 'dharna', his resignation as chief minister and the recent violence it was embroiled in. With these sections gravitating to BJP, Kejriwal might end up helping Modi. And denting Congress — and possibly some of the regional outfits — that much more.
Then there is the MAJAMA — Mamata, Jayalalithaa and Maya-wati — phenomenon. These are three women who represent three large states. As things stand today, together "Ma", "Ja" and "Ma" may well add up to around 75-80 Lok Sabha seats. Maverick and gutsy, they are expected to be king/queen makers and we may see the rise of woman power in the coming weeks.
With the launch of her "Federal Front", Mamata has upstaged Left parties' initiative for a Third Front and she has already reached out to Jayalalithaa, projecting her as a possible PM.
Mayawati cannot go with the Third Front because of Mula-yam Singh's presence, but so far she has been silent about the Federal Front even as she has taken on Modi stridently, and is unlikely to join hands with him even after the elections. It is for the simple reason that with state elections due in 2017, she will not want to risk the possibility of minorities moving towards Mulayam, robbing her of the possibility of becoming CM again. The same logic applies to Mamata who faces assembly polls in 2016.
Mamata is better placed than Mayawati or Jayalalithaa (whose income-tax cases are expected to fructify in the next three months) to tap into the current mood for clean politics. Having roped in Anna Hazare, the duo wants to encash the anti-corruption mood in the country which AAP has benefited from. Both Mamata and Anna enjoy a clean and austere image. Mamata would obviously like a "national party" status for Trinamool Congress and to enlarge the Federal Front for which she is reaching out to other regional parties like BJD.
The significance of her initiative, however, goes beyond these two goals. If Mamata's "national party" emerges as a solid group, with say 35 seats, it is not inconceivable that she might decide to join hands with Sharad Pawar's NCP, which, like TMC, came out of the Congress womb. Together they could act as a bloc of former Congresspersons to improve their bargaining position with other state satraps after the polls, were an opportunity for a non-Congress, non-BJP-led government to arise.
Many Congressmen, who quit the party in the past managed to become prime ministers, whether it was Morarji Desai, Charan Singh, V P Singh, Chandra Shekhar, H D Deve Gowda, or I K Gujral. But they did not manage to capture Congress, though they may have dreamt of a Cong-ress minus the Gandhi-Nehru family, and some may continue to harbour these ambitions.
Clearly, the idea of a pre-poll Third Front has received a setback. The Federal Front is yet to become viable. But regional satraps continue to position themselves. The chance that fortune might smile on them is only an outside one. It goes without saying that everything will hinge on the arithmetic of the 16th Lok Sabha.
The writer is a political commentator.
