When campaigning began, conventional wisdom was that Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK would come home easily. As the campaign has worn on, this wisdom has also shifted. The exit polls (3 out 4) predict a victory for the DMK. They also discount the DMDK-led Third Front of "Captain" Vijayakanth and the PMK of Anbumani Ramadoss. Watch the area around Chennai to see if the failure of the Jayalalithaa government during the floods last here is punished with a loss of seats. The DMK is strong in the North, and it needs to gain here if it is to win. More importantly, the AIADMK did really well in the Kaveri Delta where it won 44/54 seats, West (34 of 48 seats) in 2011, and if it is losing ground, then it will need to lose here.


File pic: Superstar Rajnikanth votes in Chennai.